Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T10:24:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EA 0xeaf6…f841 crypto 218 markets active 0h ago coverage 19d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$625 (+11%) realized +$625 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate42%91W / 127L
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day14.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$616
7 days+$438
14 days+$536
30 days+$489
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$489
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-24.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 141 -8.6% -17.3% 45% 37% +0.1%
≤30d 218 -17.0% -24.9% 42% 34% -1.9%
≤90d 218 -17.0% -24.9% 42% 34% -1.9%
all 218 -17.0% -24.9% 42% 34% -1.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.9% 34% -1.9%
10% -32.1% 33% -11.3%
15% -38.6% 28% -19.9%
20% -44.7% 23% -27.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$13 · ×1.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$625
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses91 / 127
Open positions0
Markets (closed)218 / 218
History coverage19d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day14.5
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 218 Trades
no open positions (111 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 20 $28 −$27 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 20 $34 −$34 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 20 $14 −$13 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 20 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 20 $79 −$29 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 20 $52 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 20 $51 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 20 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 20 $48 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 20 $26 +$74 +280%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$74 +280%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 20 $80 −$77 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 20 $45 +$55 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 20 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 20 $29 −$27 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 20 $35 +$115 +325%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 20 $77 +$73 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 19 $27 −$26 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 19 $36 −$34 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 19 $60 +$40 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 19 $50 +$50 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 19 $31 +$69 +221%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 19 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 19 $43 +$107 +245%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 19 $40 +$60 +149%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 19 $19 +$81 +440%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 19 $78 +$122 +158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 19 $18 +$82 +445%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 19 $22 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 19 $18 −$17 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 18 $28 −$27 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 18 $30 +$20 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $51 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 17 $41 +$9 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $28 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $34 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $47 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $48 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $13 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $13 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $13 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $13 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $34 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $23 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $23 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $23 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $22 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $10 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $10 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $9 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $10 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $11 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $9 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 381 history records