Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T20:42:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EA 0xeaf7…1baf world 59 markets active 2h ago coverage 541d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$47 (-2%) realized −$47 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate37%22W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 67% +$2
other 24% −$41
sports 4% −$6
politics 2% −$11
tech 1% +$2
weather 1% +$7
finance 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-18.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.7% -8.9% 57% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 26 +0.6% -9.0% 38% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 33 -0.4% -9.9% 33% 0% -9.5%
all 59 -10.0% -18.6% 37% 3% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.6% 3% -11.0%
10% -26.4% 3% -19.5%
15% -33.5% 2% -27.3%
20% -40.0% 0% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 70% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

541d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$47
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses22 / 37
Open positions0
Markets (closed)59 / 59
History coverage541d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 59 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 24 $105 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 24 $33 +$1 +3%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $17 $0 +2%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $9 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $44 +$1 +2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 20 $16 $0 -2%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $70 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $32 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $35 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $36 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $32 +$1 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $5 $0 +7%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $31 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 10 $31 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $34 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $31 −$1 -2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $287 −$1 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $66 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $35 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $66 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $58 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $31 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 27 $3 $0 -3%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 26 $5 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $12 +$1 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $80 +$1 +1%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 25 $31 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 23 $5 −$1 -27%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 23 $66 −$1 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 14 $277 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 13 $256 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 12 $528 $0 +0%
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China? May 11 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 18 $1 $0 -0%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran before July? Dec 09 $2 $0 +2%
Will Lee Jun-seok be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $1 $0 +5%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 04 $2 $0 +2%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian Presidential election by 10% or May 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Atletico Madrid win La Liga? May 12 $12 −$3 -28%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in April? May 06 $1 $0 +2%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Apr 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Mark Few make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall of F Mar 21 $38 −$14 -36%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on February 28? Mar 21 $37 +$2 +7%
NC State vs. Syracuse Feb 25 $38 $0 +0%
Will Lazio win the Serie A? Feb 19 $37 $0 +1%
Will ICE detain 800+ people on February 1? Feb 08 $4 −$4 -99%
Georgescu banned from Romania election? Feb 08 $18 −$1 -8%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.30-1.34ºC in January 202 Feb 07 $30 +$7 +24%
Will "Carnival" by Kanye West and Ty Dolla $ign featuring Rich the Kid Feb 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "A Bar Song (Tipsy)" by Shaboozey win Best Country Song? Feb 05 $21 −$21 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $38 2h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $38 2h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 92¢ $34 8h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 89¢ $33 14h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $34 24h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $34 27h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 47¢ $17 31h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 46¢ $17 34h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $9 37h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $9 37h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $1 44h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $24 44h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $8 44h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $12 47h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $21 47h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $16 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $12 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $4 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $36 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $36 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $33 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $33 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $10 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $24 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $33 6d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $4 6d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $8 6d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $11 6d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 69¢ $25 7d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 69¢ $8 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 215 history records