Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T22:15:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
EA 0xeaf8…d785 crypto 153 markets active 0h ago coverage 135d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$817 (-3%) realized −$781 · open −$36
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate67%101W / 49L
Whale WR77%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$159per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$42est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$23now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$44
7 days+$44
14 days+$201
30 days+$62
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 66% −$431
sports 16% −$207
world 15% −$502
other 4% +$210
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+0.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +218.2% +187.9% 50% 50% +120.9%
≤30d 63 +6.6% -3.6% 65% 52% -6.3%
≤90d 127 +0.3% -9.3% 69% 44% -11.5%
all 150 +11.1% +0.5% 67% 45% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.5% 45% -12.5%
10% -9.1% 29% -20.9%
15% -17.9% 21% -28.6%
20% -25.9% 11% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 77% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +23% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$71 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$23
Realized−$781
Unrealized−$36
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses101 / 49
Whale WR (big bets)77%
Est. fees paid−$42
Open positions3
Markets (closed)150 / 153
History coverage135d
Avg bet$159
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 150 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 41¢ 44¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+6%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes 43¢ 10¢ $10 $2 −$7 (-78%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 33¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 29 $20 −$1 -5%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $10 +$45 +442%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $91 −$90 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $97 +$65 +67%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $31 +$14 +44%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $23 −$2 -10%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $17 +$3 +17%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $71 +$44 +62%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $55 +$60 +109%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $11 +$4 +40%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $14 +$5 +34%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $51 +$29 +57%
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $10 +$7 +68%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 +$20 +40%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $50 −$13 -27%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $19 +$3 +15%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $60 +$4 +7%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $150 +$3 +2%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $40 +$22 +54%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 +$43 +42%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $90 +$10 +11%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$4 -18%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $115 +$2 +2%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $111 +$4 +4%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $3 +$1 +33%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $100 +$7 +7%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $91 −$90 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $10 −$8 -74%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $100 +$11 +11%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $50 −$1 -2%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$53 +52%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $91 −$57 -62%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $111 +$46 +42%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $101 +$35 +34%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $95 +$14 +15%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $101 −$61 -60%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $43 +$17 +39%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $101 +$29 +29%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $17 +$1 +8%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $73 +$24 +33%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $30 −$18 -59%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $70 +$19 +27%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $106 −$25 -24%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $12 +$1 +11%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $71 +$12 +17%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $101 −$81 -81%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $52 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 34¢ $19 25m
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $20 35m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 41¢ $20 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $55 3h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 18¢ $10 3h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 51¢ $41 8d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 64¢ $51 8d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 8d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 40¢ $20 9d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 45¢ $44 9d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 9d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 58¢ $21 9d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $23 9d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $77 9d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $20 9d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 85¢ $17 9d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $30 10d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $71 10d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 99¢ $15 10d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 70¢ $11 10d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 92¢ $19 10d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 97¢ $79 10d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 68¢ $14 10d
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $17 10d
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $10 10d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $51 11d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $55 11d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 68¢ $20 11d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 86¢ $50 11d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 82¢ $36 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23.39 · official $23.39 (match) · 365 history records