Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:16:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
EA 0xeaf8…9dc1 crypto 78 markets active 1h ago coverage 408d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$20,235 (+53%) realized +$20,229 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate39%30W / 47L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown7%max
Avg bet$488per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$306now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$250
30 days+$629
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 56% +$17,565
crypto 19% +$2,173
other 18% +$451
tech 4% −$386
finance 3% +$681
world 1% −$250
culture 0% −$10
economics 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 6 -37.8% -43.7% 33% 33% +43.8%
≤90d 7 +52.0% +37.5% 43% 43% +85.0%
all 77 -2.9% -12.2% 39% 34% +39.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 34% +39.0%
10% -20.6% 31% +25.7%
15% -28.2% 26% +13.6%
20% -35.3% 25% +2.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 70% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +104% too few recent
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +54% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +27% → late -32% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$841 vs −$107 · ×7.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.02 per $1 lost it wins $5.02
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

408d coverage
Net worth$306
Realized+$20,229
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses30 / 47
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)77 / 78
History coverage408d
Avg bet$488
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 77 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? No 44¢ 45¢ $300 $306 +$6 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? Jun 14 $153 −$150 -98%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $15 +$7 +48%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? Jun 02 $741 +$931 +126%
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $11 −$10 -94%
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 1 and June 7, 2026? May 31 $52 −$50 -97%
Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026? Apr 03 $100 +$590 +590%
Will Jessie Buckley win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 13 $100 $0 +0%
GPT-5.4 released by March 5? Mar 05 $100 −$100 -100%
Paramount x Warner Bros. acquisition announced by June 30? Feb 27 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Claude 5 be released by February 28, 2026? Feb 22 $500 +$855 +171%
Will the Logan Paul 1st Edition Charizard sale price be over 600k? Feb 07 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 02 $1,260 +$740 +59%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Dec 07 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Catalin Drula be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Dec 07 $105 −$105 -100%
Will Anca Alexandrescu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Dec 07 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Donald Trump rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025? Dec 07 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in November? Nov 21 $100 +$23 +24%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in November? Nov 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in November? Nov 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 202 Nov 08 $30 +$74 +245%
Will Elon Musk’s $1T Tesla pay deal pass? Nov 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025 Nov 05 $50 −$14 -28%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025 Nov 03 $50 −$32 -63%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 21 to October 28, 2025 Oct 28 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Larry Ellison/Oracle acquire TikTok? Oct 27 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $110K in August? Aug 27 $1,000 +$245 +24%
Bitcoin above $108K on August 27? Aug 27 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin above $110K on August 27? Aug 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in July? Aug 01 $1,120 +$589 +53%
Will Ethereum reach $3900 in July? Jul 27 $1,220 −$1,220 -100%
Will Romania's court annul the presidential election? Jul 17 $9,930 +$50 +0%
Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service before July? Jul 06 $209 +$129 +62%
Israel x Iran ceasefire before July? Jul 03 $32 −$32 -100%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be an Independent? Jun 24 $62 −$62 -100%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Ilie Bolojan? Jun 24 $70 −$70 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Iran strike on Israel by Friday? Jun 14 $200 −$200 -100%
Trump and Elon publicly reconcile by Friday? Jun 14 $1,000 +$250 +25%
Will Elon tweet 200–224 times June 6–13? Jun 13 $100 −$66 -66%
Will Elon tweet 150–174 times June 6–13? Jun 11 $100 +$16 +16%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2400 and $2500 on June 7 at 5 P Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40-45m views on day 1? Jun 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $102K and $104K on June 6? Jun 05 $100 −$23 -23%
Will Elon tweet 230 or more times May 30–June 6? Jun 03 $100 −$79 -79%
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before June? Jun 02 $20 +$94 +470%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by 4-8%? Jun 02 $11 −$11 -100%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31? Jun 01 $22 −$22 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY No 44¢ $307 1h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in June? BUY No 45¢ $102 9d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? BUY No 13¢ $52 9d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 39¢ $23 18d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? BUY No 57¢ $102 21d
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 on June 1? BUY Yes 3¢ $11 22d
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 1 and June 7, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $52 23d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? BUY Yes 22¢ $22 25d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? BUY Yes 33¢ $103 25d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? SELL Yes 36¢ $88 27d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? BUY Yes 40¢ $102 27d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $15 30d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? BUY No 32¢ $514 30d
Will Jessie Buckley win Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY No 4¢ $10 102d
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL Yes 21¢ $100 102d
GPT-5.4 released by March 5? BUY No 17¢ $100 111d
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY Yes 14¢ $100 113d
Paramount x Warner Bros. acquisition announced by June 30? BUY No 4¢ $15 117d
Will Claude 5 be released by February 28, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,355 121d
Will the Logan Paul 1st Edition Charizard sale price be over 600k? BUY No 2¢ $30 136d
Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $100 138d
Will Claude 5 be released by February 28, 2026? BUY No 37¢ $500 138d
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? BUY Yes 10¢ $20 198d
Will Catalin Drula be the next Mayor of Bucharest? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 198d
Will Anca Alexandrescu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 198d
Will Anca Alexandrescu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? BUY Yes 4¢ $50 198d
Will Catalin Drula be the next Mayor of Bucharest? BUY Yes 6¢ $100 198d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in November? BUY Yes 2¢ $50 215d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in November? BUY Yes 14¢ $50 215d
Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in November? BUY Yes 81¢ $100 215d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $305.66 · official $305.66 (match) · 307 history records