Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:37:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
EA 0xeafb…f54b crypto 614 markets active 1h ago coverage 23d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$95 (-4%) realized −$95 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate57%350W / 264L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day37.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$23
7 days+$92
14 days+$93
30 days−$94
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$95
world 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 179 +2.6% -7.2% 55% 53% -1.9%
≤30d 614 +1.7% -8.0% 57% 52% -12.8%
≤90d 614 +1.7% -8.0% 57% 52% -12.8%
all 614 +1.7% -8.0% 57% 52% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.0% 52% -12.8%
10% ← realistic here -16.8% 48% -21.2%
15% -24.8% 45% -28.8%
20% -32.2% 42% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$95
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses350 / 264
Open positions0
Markets (closed)614 / 614
History coverage23d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day37.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 614 Trades
no open positions (240 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$6 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$5 +52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$5 +48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$3 -58%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 18 $50 +$6 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 18 $10 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 18 $20 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$5 +45%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 18 $20 +$10 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 18 $109 +$6 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 18 $51 +$20 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 18 $27 −$27 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 18 $28 +$4 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 18 $14 −$14 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 18 $42 +$78 +186%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$19 +186%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 18 $17 −$17 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 18 $16 −$16 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 18 $4 +$5 +137%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 18 $2 +$3 +150%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 18 $1 +$1 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 18 $1 +$1 +134%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$4 +122%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +105%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$7 +122%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$3 +104%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +140%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $10 31m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $10 44m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $10 56m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Up 24¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $50 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $20 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $15 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $20 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $115 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $109 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $51 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $0 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $4 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $4 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $4 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $4 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $0 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $0 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $0 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 47¢ $32 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $4 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1230 history records