Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:38:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EA 0xeafd…d042 politics 76 markets active 1h ago coverage 321d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$38 (-1%) realized −$38 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate23%17W / 58L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$34
14 days−$36
30 days−$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 54% $0
world 15% −$33
economics 10% $0
other 9% −$3
sports 8% $0
crypto 2% −$1
culture 1% $0
tech 1% $0
finance 0% −$1
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -19.6% -27.2% 0% 0% -24.5%
≤30d 14 -14.6% -22.8% 21% 0% -13.7%
≤90d 29 -7.4% -16.2% 21% 0% -10.3%
all 75 -3.7% -12.9% 23% 0% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 0% -10.2%
10% -21.2% 0% -18.8%
15% -28.8% 0% -26.6%
20% -35.8% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

321d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized−$38
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses17 / 58
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)75 / 76
History coverage321d
Avg bet$73
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 75 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 97¢ 97¢ $60 $60 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $54 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $55 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 22 $54 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 22 $44 −$34 -78%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $173 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $82 −$3 -4%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $3 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $123 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $86 +$2 +2%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $34 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $3 −$1 -33%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 09 $74 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $18 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $41 +$3 +7%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $36 $0 -0%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 26 $135 +$1 +1%
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most Apr 25 $24 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 1040-1079 tweets in April 2026? Apr 25 $98 −$1 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 1120-1159 tweets in April 2026? Apr 23 $99 −$2 -2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 22 $12 −$1 -9%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun Apr 17 $200 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 03 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 02 $544 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 02 $544 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 01 $20 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 01 $1,087 $0 +0%
Will Al Mina be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? Mar 30 $544 −$1 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 30 $232 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Sep 12 $6 $0 -0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 25 $7 $0 +2%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 21 $5 $0 -8%
Will Ethereum dip to $3000 in August? Aug 21 $7 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 21 $28 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 21 $2 $0 -11%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Aug 21 $7 $0 -4%
Will Alexei Gorinov win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 21 $33 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 21 $1 $0 -7%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 21 $3 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 20 $37 $0 -0%
Will the Farmer–Citizen Movement win the most seats in the 2025 Nether Aug 20 $40 $0 +0%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Aug 19 $6 $0 +0%
Will inflation reach more than 8% in 2025? Aug 19 $6 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 18 $6 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Aug 17 $7 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 17 $2 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 17 $5 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Aug 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk in August? Aug 17 $5 $0 -1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 16 $40 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $60 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $54 8h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 68¢ $54 10h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 51¢ $55 23h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 51¢ $55 24h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $54 30h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $46 31h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $8 31h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 5¢ $10 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 23¢ $15 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 23¢ $29 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $80 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $6 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $85 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 55¢ $79 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 57¢ $45 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 57¢ $27 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $88 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $88 10d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 10d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 36¢ $9 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 36¢ $53 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 36¢ $31 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 36¢ $93 11d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 95¢ $49 11d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 95¢ $39 11d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 93¢ $86 11d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 35¢ $34 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.26 · official $60.26 (match) · 247 history records