Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:58:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
EA 0xeafd…a746 crypto 80 markets active 2h ago coverage 118d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate41%33W / 47L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$24
7 days−$24
14 days−$57
30 days−$57
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 69% −$54
other 31% +$7
sports 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -24.3% -31.5% 0% 0% -31.5%
≤30d 14 -47.2% -52.2% 29% 21% -20.8%
≤90d 14 -47.2% -52.2% 29% 21% -20.8%
all 80 -2.0% -11.4% 41% 40% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 40% -13.2%
10% -19.9% 40% -21.5%
15% -27.6% 40% -29.1%
20% -34.7% 32% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +45% → late -49% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$10 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses33 / 47
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)80 / 80
History coverage118d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 80 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $100 −$24 -24%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 17 $11 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $6 +$5 +93%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $85 +$46 +54%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $126 −$37 -29%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $59 +$24 +41%
Solana Up or Down - March 22, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Mar 22 $16 −$16 -99%
Solana Up or Down - March 22, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Mar 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 22, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Mar 22 $5 +$4 +78%
Solana Up or Down - March 22, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Mar 22 $1 −$1 -99%
Solana Up or Down - March 11, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Mar 11 $6 +$4 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 11, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Mar 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Mar 11 $15 −$15 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 11, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Mar 11 $28 −$28 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 11, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Mar 11 $54 −$8 -14%
Solana Up or Down - March 11, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Mar 11 $12 −$12 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 11, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Mar 11 $28 +$10 +36%
Solana Up or Down - February 27, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Feb 27 $8 +$4 +42%
Solana Up or Down - February 27, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Feb 27 $5 +$4 +89%
Solana Up or Down - February 27, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Feb 27 $7 −$7 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 27, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Feb 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Feb 27 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Feb 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 27, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Feb 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 27, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Feb 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Feb 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 27, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Feb 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 27, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Feb 27 $6 +$3 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Feb 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 27, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Feb 27 $12 −$12 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 27, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Feb 27 $7 −$7 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 27, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Feb 27 $6 +$9 +147%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Feb 27 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Feb 27 $7 −$7 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 27, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Feb 27 $8 −$8 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 27, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Feb 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 27, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Feb 27 $45 −$45 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 27, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Feb 27 $14 −$14 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 27, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Feb 27 $3 +$2 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 27, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Feb 27 $10 +$12 +115%
Solana Up or Down - February 27, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Feb 27 $1 +$2 +199%
Solana Up or Down - February 27, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Feb 27 $3 +$5 +182%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 49¢ $28 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 49¢ $48 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 63¢ $100 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $5 7d
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET SELL Up 4¢ $1 7d
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $26 7d
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $5 7d
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $5 7d
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $5 7d
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Down 82¢ $11 7d
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 7d
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 7d
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $5 7d
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $6 7d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $131 7d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $85 7d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $84 7d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 9d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 9d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $4 9d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 44¢ $84 10d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 30¢ $59 10d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $126 14d
Solana Up or Down - March 22, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $16 93d
Solana Up or Down - March 22, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 93d
Solana Up or Down - March 22, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Down 84¢ $9 93d
Solana Up or Down - March 22, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 93d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 263 history records