Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:35:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EA 0xeaff…0f5d sports 11 markets active 0h ago coverage 22d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$436 (-13%) realized −$515 · open +$79
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%4W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$299per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$34est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$417now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 22d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% −$403
other 6% −$172
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-33.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -22.7% -30.1% 50% 50% -19.3%
≤30d 10 -26.0% -33.0% 40% 40% -29.6%
≤90d 10 -26.0% -33.0% 40% 40% -29.6%
all 10 -26.0% -33.0% 40% 40% -29.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.0% 40% -29.6%
10% -39.4% 20% -36.3%
15% -45.3% 20% -42.4%
20% -50.7% 10% -48.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 88% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$97 vs −$173 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$417
Realized−$515
Unrealized+$79
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses4 / 6
Est. fees paid−$34
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage22d
Avg bet$299
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Arthur Fery Roman Andres Burruchaga 60¢ 74¢ $338 $417 +$79 (+23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Zhuoxuan Bai vs Tamara Zidansek Jun 23 $65 +$7 +11%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Justina Mikulskyte vs Carol Zhao Jun 23 $295 +$40 +14%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q Jun 23 $579 −$249 -43%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 23 $327 +$218 +67%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $195 −$172 -88%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia C Jun 22 $2 −$2 -96%
Birmingham: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Aleksandar Vukic Jun 02 $94 −$93 -99%
Dota 2: Pipsqueak+4 vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Esports World Cup Wester Jun 02 $900 −$512 -57%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 02 $195 −$14 -7%
Dota 2: Two Move vs MODUS (BO3) - Esports World Cup Eastern Europe Clo Jun 02 $303 +$122 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Arthur Fery BUY Roman Andres Burruchaga 60¢ $6 9m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Arthur Fery BUY Roman Andres Burruchaga 60¢ $8 9m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Arthur Fery BUY Roman Andres Burruchaga 60¢ $8 9m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Arthur Fery BUY Roman Andres Burruchaga 60¢ $16 9m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Arthur Fery BUY Roman Andres Burruchaga 60¢ $3 9m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Arthur Fery BUY Roman Andres Burruchaga 60¢ $137 9m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Arthur Fery BUY Roman Andres Burruchaga 60¢ $4 9m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Arthur Fery BUY Roman Andres Burruchaga 60¢ $6 9m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Arthur Fery BUY Roman Andres Burruchaga 60¢ $8 9m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Arthur Fery BUY Roman Andres Burruchaga 60¢ $15 9m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Arthur Fery BUY Roman Andres Burruchaga 60¢ $125 9m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Arthur Fery BUY Roman Andres Burruchaga 60¢ $2 9m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Zhuoxuan Bai vs Tamara Zidansek SELL Zhuoxuan Bai 100¢ $73 19m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Zhuoxuan Bai vs Tamara Zidansek BUY Zhuoxuan Bai 90¢ $65 25m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Justina Mikulskyte vs Carol Zhao SELL Justina Mikulskyte 100¢ $334 36m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Justina Mikulskyte vs Carol Zhao BUY Justina Mikulskyte 88¢ $277 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Justina Mikulskyte vs Carol Zhao BUY Justina Mikulskyte 88¢ $18 1h
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q SELL MODUS 100¢ $296 1h
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q BUY MODUS 97¢ $1 1h
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q BUY MODUS 95¢ $93 1h
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q BUY MODUS 95¢ $1 1h
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q BUY MODUS 95¢ $185 1h
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q BUY MODUS 95¢ $2 1h
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q SELL Rune Eaters 10¢ $34 1h
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q BUY Rune Eaters 85¢ $22 3h
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q BUY Rune Eaters 85¢ $42 3h
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q BUY Rune Eaters 85¢ $42 3h
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q BUY Rune Eaters 85¢ $42 3h
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q BUY Rune Eaters 85¢ $42 3h
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q BUY Rune Eaters 85¢ $105 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $417.09 · official $417.09 (match) · 61 history records