Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T13:09:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EB 0xeb02…9b56 world 104 markets active 1h ago coverage 534d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$26 (-1%) realized −$26 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate35%36W / 67L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$3
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% −$13
other 21% +$1
politics 16% +$11
sports 13% −$7
economics 5% $0
finance 1% $0
weather 1% −$18
crypto 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.1% -9.4% 14% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 32 +0.2% -9.4% 34% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 84 -0.8% -10.2% 33% 2% -10.0%
all 103 -5.0% -14.0% 35% 5% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.0% 5% -10.3%
10% -22.2% 4% -18.9%
15% -29.8% 2% -26.7%
20% -36.6% 2% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

534d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses36 / 67
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)103 / 104
History coverage534d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 103 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Yes $0 $0 +$0 (+25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? Jun 24 $26 $0 +0%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 22 $26 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 21 $98 $0 -0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $47 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $39 +$2 +4%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 18 $22 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $23 −$1 -3%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $23 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $22 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $106 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $23 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 15 $64 +$1 +2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $26 +$1 +6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $77 −$1 -1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $20 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $20 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $21 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $11 −$1 -5%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $14 +$1 +9%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $43 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $21 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $41 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $102 +$4 +4%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $3 $0 +2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $25 $0 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $21 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $63 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 31 $32 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 30 $23 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $42 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 26 $23 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 26 $2 $0 -11%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 24 $22 −$4 -20%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $26 −$16 -60%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 22 $82 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 19 $36 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $39 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 18 $32 $0 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 16 $2 $0 -5%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $32 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 16 $31 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 14 $6 $0 +0%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 14 $1 $0 -5%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 29 $67 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $76 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $36 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $73 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 25 $109 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $124 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $72 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $26 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $26 1h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $17 37h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $9 37h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $26 37h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $23 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $23 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 73¢ $5 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 73¢ $18 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $9 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $15 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 75¢ $23 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 75¢ $11 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 75¢ $2 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 75¢ $10 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $17 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $9 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $24 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 68¢ $16 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 68¢ $7 6d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $22 6d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $7 6d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $15 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 37¢ $22 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $23 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $23 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $23 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $22 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.04 · official $0.00 (match) · 423 history records