Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:58:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EB 0xeb03…5d15 world 156 markets active 1h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,235 (-5%) realized −$1,170 · open −$65
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate62%81W / 50L
Whale WR41%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$176per market
Trades / day8.8pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$452now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$377
7 days+$214
14 days−$68
30 days−$2,140
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 89% −$920
tech 3% −$247
economics 2% −$96
politics 2% −$105
other 2% −$23
finance 1% +$7
sports 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -10.2% -18.8% 58% 35% -5.8%
≤30d 86 -16.2% -24.2% 50% 30% -21.2%
≤90d 129 -7.0% -15.9% 61% 33% -14.3%
all 131 -6.8% -15.6% 62% 33% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.6% 33% -14.2%
10% -23.7% 19% -22.4%
15% -31.1% 12% -29.9%
20% -37.8% 8% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 41% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +3% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$79 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$452
Realized−$1,170
Unrealized−$65
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses81 / 50
Whale WR (big bets)41%
Open positions25
Markets (closed)131 / 156
History coverage100d
Avg bet$176
Trades / day8.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 25 History 131 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? Yes 33¢ 32¢ $165 $162 −$2 (-2%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Yes 49¢ 48¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+0%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $29 $28 −$1 (-2%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $68 $22 −$47 (-68%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-1%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? No 17¢ 18¢ $17 $18 +$1 (+6%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House No 77¢ 84¢ $14 $15 +$1 (+8%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $19 $13 −$6 (-32%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 37¢ 33¢ $11 $10 −$1 (-11%)
US announces Cuba oil sanction relief by June 30? No 81¢ 92¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+14%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 18¢ 8¢ $14 $6 −$8 (-57%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? Yes 10¢ 6¢ $4 $3 −$2 (-38%)
Trump pays Jan 6 rioter? No 70¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+34%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Yes 78¢ 80¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 20¢ 56¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+175%)
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? No 64¢ 55¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-14%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 46¢ 47¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes 43¢ 42¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-8%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 55¢ 24¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-57%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-27%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Yes 25¢ 6¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-74%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Yes 23¢ 3¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-86%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Yes 58¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 18 $29 +$3 +9%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? Jun 18 $24 +$2 +8%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -91%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $4 $0 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $311 +$7 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $134 +$10 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $974 +$74 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $929 −$463 -50%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 17 $10 −$8 -87%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 17 $69 −$51 -75%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 17 $107 −$84 -78%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $10 +$2 +18%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 17 $13 +$7 +56%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 17 $20 +$20 +100%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 17 $758 +$845 +112%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? Jun 17 $246 +$30 +12%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 16 $12 −$10 -87%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 15 $597 −$4 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $415 −$110 -26%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 14 $120 +$14 +12%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 14 $22 +$17 +77%
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Jun 13 $23 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 13 $14 +$7 +52%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 13 $47 +$17 +37%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 13 $48 +$32 +67%
Will the House pass a reconciliation bill by June 15? Jun 13 $52 −$37 -72%
Will SpaceX IPO on June 12, 2026? Jun 13 $28 −$28 -100%
Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in July 2026 (ET)? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will SpaceX IPO on June 30, 2026 or later? Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 13 $102 −$102 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 13 $66 +$44 +67%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $231 −$24 -10%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $21 −$21 -100%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Jun 06 $563 −$84 -15%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 06 $375 −$144 -38%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 06 $16 −$9 -56%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 03 $34 −$13 -39%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? Jun 01 $98 −$44 -44%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $91 −$42 -46%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $277 −$176 -64%
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by May 31? Jun 01 $39 −$2 -6%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $656 −$159 -24%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $60 +$17 +29%
Will the U.S. lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $49 −$22 -45%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? Jun 01 $168 −$63 -38%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? Jun 01 $827 −$67 -8%
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $31 −$1 -3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 31 $245 −$32 -13%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $1,079 −$171 -16%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 30 $28 +$12 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 29¢ $29 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $165 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 BUY Yes 56¢ $46 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? SELL Yes 56¢ $1 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $4 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 4¢ $18 2h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 2h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 2h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 2h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 2h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 2h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 2h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 2h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 2h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 2h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 3h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 3h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 3h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 3h
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $10 3h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 5¢ $23 3h
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $72 3h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 3h
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL Yes 80¢ $12 3h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 3h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $40 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $452.10 · official $451.18 (match) · 1012 history records