trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 15 | +36.0% | +23.1% | 87% | 80% | +25.6% |
| ≤30d | 17 | +20.0% | +8.6% | 76% | 71% | +5.2% |
| ≤90d | 18 | +19.7% | +8.3% | 78% | 72% | +5.1% |
| all | 30 | -7.6% | -16.4% | 63% | 53% | -12.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -16.4% | 53% | -12.0% |
| 10% | -24.4% | 40% | -20.5% |
| 15% | -31.7% | 37% | -28.1% |
| 20% | -38.4% | 30% | -35.2% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 75¢ | 84¢ | $48 | $54 | +$6 (+12%) |
| Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? | Yes | 26¢ | 24¢ | $50 | $47 | −$3 (-6%) |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 18¢ | 20¢ | $20 | $21 | +$1 (+7%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? | Jun 23 | $15 | +$24 | +158% |
| Will France win on 2026-06-22? | Jun 23 | $100 | +$10 | +10% |
| Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? | Jun 22 | $10 | −$10 | -98% |
| Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? | Jun 21 | $50 | +$6 | +12% |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? | Jun 21 | $50 | +$24 | +48% |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? | Jun 20 | $101 | +$53 | +52% |
| Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? | Jun 20 | $50 | −$50 | -100% |
| Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? | Jun 20 | $51 | +$36 | +70% |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? | Jun 20 | $51 | +$34 | +67% |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-19? | Jun 19 | $51 | +$31 | +62% |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? | Jun 19 | $50 | +$16 | +32% |
| Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? | Jun 18 | $30 | +$17 | +57% |
| Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? | Jun 18 | $50 | +$20 | +40% |
| Will England win on 2026-06-17? | Jun 17 | $67 | +$47 | +70% |
| Will France win on 2026-06-16? | Jun 16 | $101 | +$63 | +62% |
| Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 13 | $60 | −$60 | -100% |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? | May 30 | $102 | −$100 | -98% |
| Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $18 mi | Apr 25 | $100 | +$15 | +15% |
| Will Egypt win on 2026-01-14? | Jan 14 | $25 | −$25 | -100% |
| Will Nigeria win the CAF Africa Cup of Nations Morocco 2025? | Jan 14 | $50 | −$50 | -100% |
| Will Nigeria win on 2026-01-14? | Jan 14 | $25 | −$25 | -100% |
| Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $8 mil | Jan 10 | $50 | −$50 | -100% |
| Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-01-10? | Jan 10 | $25 | −$25 | -100% |
| Will Egypt win on 2026-01-10? | Jan 10 | $100 | +$72 | +72% |
| Will Nigeria win on 2026-01-10? | Jan 10 | $300 | +$63 | +21% |
| OpenAI social app in 2025? | Sep 28 | $246 | −$125 | -51% |
| TikTok sale announced by September 30? | Sep 27 | $100 | +$19 | +19% |
| Israel strike on Yemen by September 30? | Sep 21 | $100 | −$100 | -100% |
| Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? | Sep 21 | $100 | +$4 | +4% |
| Will Jesus Christ return in 2025? | Sep 21 | $100 | +$2 | +2% |