Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T03:24:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EB 0xeb0f…084c sports 25 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$257 (-28%) realized −$257 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR65%break-even
Win rate65%15W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day29.1pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% −$205
other 9% −$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +65%
net ROI/market (all)-18.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -10.1% -18.7% 65% 65% -33.5%
≤30d 23 -10.1% -18.7% 65% 65% -33.5%
≤90d 23 -10.1% -18.7% 65% 65% -33.5%
all 23 -10.1% -18.7% 65% 65% -33.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.7% 65% -33.5%
10% ← realistic here -26.5% 65% -39.9%
15% -33.6% 43% -45.7%
20% -40.1% 4% -51.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -47% → late +23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$54 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized−$257
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses15 / 8
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)23 / 25
History coverage1d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day29.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 4 Winner T1 61¢ 60¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Indios de Mayaguez vs. Cangrejeros de Santurce Jun 29 $5 +$1 +27%
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs Patins da Ferrari (BO3) - CCT South Am Jun 29 $37 +$13 +34%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend (BO5) - Super DraculaN P Jun 28 $21 +$8 +38%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eur Jun 28 $49 +$13 +26%
Map Handicap: ICE (-2.5) vs Acend (+2.5) Jun 28 $4 +$1 +26%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Jun 28 $35 +$13 +36%
Dota 2: Hive vs Spirit Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 28 $50 +$18 +36%
Map Handicap: Honvéd (-1.5) vs OlyBet SB (+1.5) Jun 28 $49 +$21 +42%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 28 $11 +$4 +32%
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5) Jun 28 $43 +$19 +43%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $29 −$29 -99%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 4.5 Jun 28 $49 +$20 +40%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 28 $101 −$100 -99%
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $41 −$40 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $33 +$12 +36%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $49 −$49 -99%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $38 +$18 +48%
Panama vs. England: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $50 −$49 -99%
Counter-Strike: Acend vs ECHO (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs Jun 27 $45 +$30 +67%
Valorant: Evil Geniuses Academy vs Alliance Guardians - Map 1 Winner Jun 27 $20 −$20 -99%
ITF Palma Del Rio: Elena Micic vs Ayla Aksu Jun 27 $46 −$46 -99%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Ugo Humbert Jun 27 $101 −$100 -99%
ITF Palma Del Rio: Eva Vedder vs Amandine Hesse Jun 27 $7 +$3 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 61¢ $9 3m
Indios de Mayaguez vs. Cangrejeros de Santurce SELL Cangrejeros de Santurce 100¢ $7 1h
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs Patins da Ferrari (BO3) - CCT South Am SELL Patins da Ferrari 100¢ $50 1h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend (BO5) - Super DraculaN P SELL Inner Circle Esports 100¢ $29 4h
Indios de Mayaguez vs. Cangrejeros de Santurce BUY Cangrejeros de Santurce 78¢ $5 4h
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs Patins da Ferrari (BO3) - CCT South Am BUY Patins da Ferrari 74¢ $37 4h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend (BO5) - Super DraculaN P BUY Inner Circle Esports 72¢ $21 6h
Map Handicap: ICE (-2.5) vs Acend (+2.5) SELL Acend 100¢ $5 8h
Map Handicap: ICE (-2.5) vs Acend (+2.5) BUY Acend 79¢ $4 8h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eur BUY Nigma Galaxy 79¢ $49 9h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed SELL HULIGANI 100¢ $48 11h
Dota 2: Hive vs Spirit Academy - Game 1 Winner SELL Hive 100¢ $68 11h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed BUY HULIGANI 73¢ $35 13h
Dota 2: Hive vs Spirit Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Hive 73¢ $50 13h
Dalian Yingbo FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 78¢ $0 14h
Map Handicap: Honvéd (-1.5) vs OlyBet SB (+1.5) BUY OlyBet SB 70¢ $49 19h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 75¢ $11 21h
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5) SELL T1 100¢ $61 21h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 64¢ $29 23h
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5) BUY T1 69¢ $43 23h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $69 23h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 71¢ $49 23h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 66¢ $51 23h
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 66¢ $51 23h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 67¢ $41 25h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? SELL No 100¢ $45 25h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 73¢ $33 27h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 72¢ $49 27h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Under 100¢ $57 28h
Panama vs. England: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 54¢ $50 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.07 · official $9.07 (match) · 42 history records