Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T19:23:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
EB 0xeb0f…b951 weather 790 markets active 1h ago coverage 55d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 55d only
✗ bot/MM pace (54 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3,160 (+1%) realized +$3,160 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate97%765W / 24L
Whale WR99%big bets
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$297per market
Trades / day54.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$26
7 days+$494
14 days+$834
30 days+$1,955
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$3,057
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (54 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-6.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 73 +4.2% -5.7% 100% 7% -8.1%
≤30d 284 +4.7% -5.2% 100% 8% -7.8%
≤90d 789 +3.5% -6.3% 97% 7% -8.3%
all 789 +3.5% -6.3% 97% 7% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover54.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.3% 7% -8.3%
10% ← realistic here -15.3% 5% -17.1%
15% -23.5% 4% -25.1%
20% -31.0% 2% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 99% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$9 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×15.35 per $1 lost it wins $15.35
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$3,160
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses765 / 24
Whale WR (big bets)99%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)789 / 790
History coverage55d ⚠
Avg bet$297
Trades / day54.5
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 789 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 28? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on June 28? Jun 28 $124 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 28? Jun 28 $399 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 28? Jun 28 $36 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 28? Jun 28 $199 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C or below on June 28? Jun 28 $398 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 28? Jun 28 $1,197 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on June 27? Jun 27 $1,195 +$3 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 27? Jun 27 $1,236 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 27? Jun 27 $1,192 +$3 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 27? Jun 27 $796 +$3 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 27? Jun 27 $57 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 27? Jun 27 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 27? Jun 27 $219 +$6 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on June 27? Jun 27 $300 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 27 $242 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 26? Jun 26 $33 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 26? Jun 26 $329 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 26? Jun 26 $306 +$93 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 26? Jun 26 $399 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 26? Jun 26 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 26? Jun 26 $37 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 25? Jun 25 $399 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 25 $786 +$13 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 25 $34 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 25? Jun 25 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on June 25? Jun 25 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 59°F or below on June 25? Jun 25 $1,996 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 25? Jun 25 $96 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 81°F or below on June 25? Jun 25 $399 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 10°C on June 25? Jun 25 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 12°C on June 25? Jun 25 $1,992 +$6 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 25? Jun 25 $260 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 25? Jun 25 $175 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 71°F or below on June Jun 25 $1,197 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C on June 25? Jun 25 $797 +$3 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C on June 25? Jun 25 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju Jun 24 $69 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 24? Jun 24 $399 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 24 $396 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 34°C on June 24? Jun 24 $93 +$28 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 25? Jun 24 $1,585 +$14 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 24? Jun 24 $397 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 32°C on June 24? Jun 24 $794 +$6 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C or below on June 24? Jun 24 $399 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 23? Jun 24 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 12°C on June 24? Jun 24 $1,593 +$5 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 13°C on June 24? Jun 24 $435 +$21 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 23? Jun 23 $397 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 23 $399 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 23 $728 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on June 28? SELL No 100¢ $75 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on June 28? SELL No 100¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on June 28? BUY No 99¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on June 28? BUY No 99¢ $64 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on June 28? BUY No 99¢ $31 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 28? SELL No 100¢ $290 2h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 28? SELL No 100¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 28? SELL No 100¢ $104 2h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $399 2h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 28? SELL No 100¢ $36 3h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $36 3h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 28? SELL No 100¢ $120 8h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 28? SELL No 100¢ $82 8h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 28? BUY No 98¢ $199 8h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C or below on June 28? SELL No 100¢ $400 9h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C or below on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $398 10h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 28? SELL No 100¢ $799 11h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 28? SELL No 100¢ $334 11h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 28? SELL No 100¢ $66 11h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $353 11h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $46 11h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $398 11h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $399 11h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $455 22h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $80 22h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $80 23h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $1 23h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $200 23h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $11 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.68 · official $0.00 (match) · 3491 history records