Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:23:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EB 0xeb11…73f2 sports 624 markets active 6d ago coverage 93d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,775 (-6%) realized −$2,234 · open −$541
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate54%330W / 282L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$78per market
Trades / day18.6pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$13
14 days−$21
30 days+$90
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 92% −$2,551
sports 3% −$68
crypto 3% −$122
weather 1% −$44
other 1% −$2
politics 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -19.5% -27.1% 38% 38% -51.3%
≤30d 215 -3.5% -12.7% 49% 46% -5.5%
≤90d 426 -11.1% -19.6% 47% 41% -14.2%
all 612 -0.9% -10.3% 54% 48% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 48% -13.8%
10% -18.9% 39% -22.0%
15% -26.7% 31% -29.6%
20% -33.9% 21% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$15 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$2,234
Unrealized−$541
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses330 / 282
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions12
Markets (closed)612 / 624
History coverage93d
Avg bet$78
Trades / day18.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 612 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+9%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $5 +$2 (+47%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $3 $5 +$1 (+42%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+8%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 13¢ $4 $4 −$1 (-20%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $3 +$1 (+28%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $3 +$0 (+9%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-8%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $2 −$0 (-21%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+15%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $1 −$0 (-28%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 79¢ $544 $1 −$543 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 128 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ITF Guimaraes: Katarina Kuzmova vs Lauryn John-Baptiste Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $1 +$1 +124%
Spread: Athletics (-2.5) Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $12 −$10 -83%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $5 −$5 -99%
Ilkley: Emerson Jones vs Dalma Galfi Jun 10 $1 $0 +48%
Libema Open: Martin Damm vs Alex de Minaur Jun 10 $2 $0 +20%
Tucuman: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Juan Manuel La Serna Jun 10 $2 +$5 +262%
Libema Open: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 10 $1 +$1 +93%
Ilkley: Luca Nardi vs Jacob Fearnley Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5 Jun 07 $2 −$2 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $5 $0 -6%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 07 $1 +$2 +180%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 04 $1 −$1 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 201.5 Jun 04 $3 −$3 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 200.5 Jun 04 $5 −$5 -99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 04 $3 +$2 +52%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 01 $431 +$54 +12%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 01 $3 +$2 +70%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 30 $387 +$93 +24%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 26 $2 $0 +24%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 22 $131 +$8 +6%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 22 $4 $0 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 22 $40 +$14 +35%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner May 22 $5 +$2 +40%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 - Map 2 Winner May 22 $5 −$5 -99%
AFC Ajax vs. FC Groningen: O/U 1.5 May 22 $4 +$1 +34%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 22 $4 +$2 +36%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Lynn Vision - Map 2 Winner May 22 $3 +$4 +104%
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Alina Korneeva vs Julia Riera May 22 $5 +$2 +47%
Hamburg European Open: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli May 22 $8 +$3 +40%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Jaime Faria vs Lukas Neumayer May 22 $7 +$4 +49%
Will AFC Ajax win on 2026-05-21? May 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 207.5 May 21 $4 −$4 -99%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 21 $8 −$8 -98%
AFC Ajax vs. FC Groningen: O/U 2.5 May 21 $2 −$2 -98%
Brøndby IF vs. FC København: O/U 1.5 May 21 $3 −$3 -98%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Shuai Zhang vs Emma Navarro May 21 $14 −$7 -54%
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Ashlyn Krueger vs Mary Stoiana May 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs paiN (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group A May 21 $10 −$4 -42%
Cervia: Andrea Guerrieri vs Carlo Alberto Caniato May 21 $1 −$1 -100%
GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem: Anhelina Kalinina vs Anna Bondar May 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs paiN - Map 2 Winner May 21 $4 −$4 -99%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Coleman Wong vs Juan Carlos Prado May 21 $1 −$1 -98%
Will LDU de Quito win on 2026-05-20? May 21 $2 +$3 +109%
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 10.5 May 21 $3 +$2 +85%
Grêmio FBPA vs. CD Palestino: O/U 3.5 May 21 $3 +$2 +75%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ITF Guimaraes: Katarina Kuzmova vs Lauryn John-Baptiste BUY Lauryn John-Baptiste 26¢ $1 5d
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic BUY Nuno Borges 50¢ $1 5d
Spread: Athletics (-2.5) BUY Athletics 47¢ $1 6d
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Houston Astros 48¢ $1 6d
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies 44¢ $1 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 90¢ $10 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 13¢ $1 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 39¢ $2 6d
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 18¢ $2 6d
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 68¢ $1 6d
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 68¢ $1 6d
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 68¢ $1 6d
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 67¢ $2 6d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 6d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 6d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 6d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 6d
Tucuman: Johan Alexander Rodriguez vs Juan Manuel La Serna BUY Johan Alexander Rodriguez 27¢ $2 6d
Libema Open: Martin Damm vs Alex de Minaur BUY Alex de Minaur 83¢ $2 6d
Ilkley: Luca Nardi vs Jacob Fearnley BUY Luca Nardi 46¢ $1 6d
Ilkley: Emerson Jones vs Dalma Galfi BUY Dalma Galfi 67¢ $1 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $24 6d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 68¢ $2 9d
Libema Open: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak BUY Kamil Majchrzak 51¢ $1 9d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev SELL Alexander Zverev 85¢ $3 9d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Alexander Zverev 78¢ $3 9d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev SELL Flavio Cobolli 21¢ $2 9d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Flavio Cobolli 27¢ $2 9d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 35¢ $1 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.53 · official $36.53 (match) · 2037 history records