Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:47:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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EB 0xeb22…808a world 140 markets active 0h ago coverage 28d ⚠
BOTnot copyable world specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 28d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (118 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$62,977 (+25%) realized +$67,152 · open −$4,175
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +70% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +26% what you keep after slip
Net edge+26%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate57%62W / 46L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$1,794per market
Trades / day118.1pace
Fees−$355est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$94,210now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
world 57% +$42,217
politics 17% +$1,691
economics 10% +$26
finance 7% −$2,694
sports 7% +$44,761
other 1% +$15
tech 1% +$30
crypto 1% +$4,113
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (118 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+54.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 +101.4% +82.2% 30% 28% -1.6%
≤30d 108 +70.4% +54.1% 57% 44% +24.8%
≤90d 108 +70.4% +54.1% 57% 44% +24.8%
all 108 +70.4% +54.1% 57% 44% +24.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover118.1 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +54.1% 44% +24.8%
10% +39.4% 36% +12.8%
15% ← realistic here +25.9% 31% +1.9%
20% +13.6% 29% -8.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 46% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +63% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +70% · $-wt +63% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$1,260) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +64% → late +76% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
21.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,015 vs −$665 · ×3.03 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.08 per $1 lost it wins $4.08
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$94,210
Realized+$67,152
Unrealized−$4,175
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses62 / 46
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$355
Open positions35
Markets (closed)108 / 140
History coverage28d ⚠
Avg bet$1,794
Trades / day118.1
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 35 History 108 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 71¢ 72¢ $25,000 $25,025 +$25 (+0%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 14¢ 16¢ $13,389 $14,979 +$1,590 (+12%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 81¢ 90¢ $12,109 $13,575 +$1,465 (+12%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $9,016 $8,921 −$95 (-1%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 63¢ 62¢ $6,255 $6,175 −$80 (-1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 44¢ 48¢ $4,244 $4,576 +$332 (+8%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Yes 22¢ 14¢ $6,610 $4,050 −$2,560 (-39%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? Yes 34¢ 22¢ $5,231 $3,424 −$1,806 (-35%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 53¢ 72¢ $2,157 $2,937 +$780 (+36%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 15¢ 47¢ $841 $2,568 +$1,728 (+206%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? No 79¢ 100¢ $1,580 $1,999 +$419 (+27%)
JD Vance out as VP by December 31? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $1,613 $1,527 −$86 (-5%)
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $965 $982 +$17 (+2%)
Will Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? No 90¢ 95¢ $897 $946 +$49 (+5%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $580 $586 +$5 (+1%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another Middle East/North Africa country? Yes 0¢ 4¢ $17 $581 +$564 (+3344%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $131 $383 +$252 (+192%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? Yes 20¢ 1¢ $3,990 $250 −$3,740 (-94%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $118 $188 +$70 (+59%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? Yes 12¢ 11¢ $120 $114 −$6 (-5%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria? Yes 0¢ 2¢ $17 $106 +$89 (+518%)
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $79 $82 +$3 (+4%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? Yes 10¢ 1¢ $1,027 $55 −$972 (-95%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Egypt? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $64 $37 −$27 (-42%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? Yes 27¢ 1¢ $670 $35 −$635 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Jun 19 $860 +$140 +16%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $1,298 +$2,233 +172%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? Jun 18 $425 +$75 +18%
Will Marco Rubio have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? Jun 18 $44 +$22 +50%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 17 $1,245 −$1,245 -100%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $2,081 −$673 -32%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? Jun 16 $500 −$500 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $12,669 +$14,001 +110%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 16 $7,011 +$6,208 +88%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $200 −$200 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) Jun 15 $180 −$180 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-14.5) Jun 15 $180 −$180 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $800 −$800 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-14.5) Jun 15 $171 −$171 -100%
Will Chet Holmgren win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-16.5) Jun 15 $173 −$173 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-14.5) Jun 15 $225 −$225 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-9.5) Jun 15 $675 −$675 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) Jun 15 $576 −$576 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-4.5) Jun 15 $675 −$675 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $1,825 −$1,825 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $425 −$425 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-9.5) Jun 15 $700 −$700 -100%
Will Stephon Castle win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 15 $49 −$49 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-9.5) Jun 15 $852 −$852 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 15 $3,677 −$2,414 -66%
Will De'Aaron Fox win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 15 $57 −$57 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 15 $270 −$270 -100%
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 15 $153 −$153 -100%
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 15 $794 −$794 -100%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 15 $21 +$2,167 +10481%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 14 $910 +$67 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $16,982 −$7,760 -46%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $11,710 −$3,089 -26%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 14 $4,450 −$824 -18%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 14 $750 −$750 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $471 +$42,938 +9119%
NBA Finals: Wemby to Record 20+ Rebounds in a Game? Jun 14 $3 +$2 +70%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? Jun 13 $412 +$53 +13%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European countr Jun 13 $7 +$2,410 +32252%
Will the 2026 NBA Finals be tied 2-2 through 4 games? Jun 11 $255 +$70 +28%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 11 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Jun 11 $277 +$352 +127%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Jun 11 $850 +$1,751 +206%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 10 $134 +$112 +83%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $8,160 +$360 +4%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 10 $780 +$14 +2%
Spread: Knicks (-5.5) Jun 09 $185 −$185 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 08 $540 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 08 $690 +$17 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 10m
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 3¢ $7 10m
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 31m
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 46m
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 24¢ $203 50m
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 3¢ $56 50m
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $26 50m
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 62¢ $3,115 53m
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 63¢ $2,724 53m
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 63¢ $408 1h
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 3¢ $56 1h
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $26 1h
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 63¢ $9 1h
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 2h
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 4h
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 5h
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 5h
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 3¢ $28 5h
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $13 5h
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $13 5h
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 3¢ $28 5h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 67¢ $3,346 5h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 67¢ $4 5h
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 5h
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 6h
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 3¢ $84 6h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 71¢ $7,100 6h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 72¢ $7,200 6h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 73¢ $3,650 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $94,209.67 · official $94,132.17 (match) · 3500 history records