Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:25:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
EB 0xeb23…a436 sports 27 markets active 24h ago coverage 231d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$289 (+7%) realized +$289 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate54%14W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$161per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$101now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$0
14 days+$8
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$288
politics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +4.9% -5.1% 50% 50% -9.2%
≤30d 18 +4.8% -5.1% 56% 56% -2.5%
≤90d 19 -0.7% -10.1% 53% 53% -7.1%
all 26 -0.2% -9.7% 54% 50% -3.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 50% -3.4%
10% -18.3% 50% -12.6%
15% -26.2% 46% -21.1%
20% -33.4% 38% -28.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late +14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$85 vs −$75 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

231d coverage
Net worth$101
Realized+$289
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses14 / 12
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)26 / 27
History coverage231d
Avg bet$161
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $101 $101 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $8 +$6 +75%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) Jun 16 $8 −$8 -99%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) Jun 15 $3 +$7 +226%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 212.5 Jun 13 $5 −$4 -99%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $8 +$2 +27%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5 Jun 10 $4 +$5 +133%
Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5) Jun 07 $6 +$3 +40%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 10.5 Jun 03 $8 +$4 +45%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 May 31 $6 −$6 -99%
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5) May 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens: O/U 6.5 May 28 $3 +$2 +67%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 28 $5 +$4 +73%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens: O/U 4.5 May 27 $9 −$9 -99%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 May 24 $6 +$7 +122%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5 May 21 $2 −$2 -98%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche: O/U 5.5 May 21 $6 +$4 +79%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5 May 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Sabres vs. Canadiens: O/U 6.5 May 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Suns: O/U 239.5 Oct 30 $277 +$325 +117%
Spread: Timberwolves (-6.5) Oct 30 $334 +$347 +104%
Lakers vs. Timberwolves: O/U 223.5 Oct 30 $503 +$428 +85%
Rolex Paris Masters: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Alexander Zverev Oct 30 $2,163 +$44 +2%
Rolex Paris Masters: Zizou Bergs vs Jannik Sinner Oct 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Spread: Nuggets (-12.5) Oct 29 $485 −$485 -100%
Spread: Grizzlies (-1.5) Oct 29 $366 −$366 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 29¢ $3 23h
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) BUY Boston Red Sox 63¢ $8 2d
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 57¢ $4 3d
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 57¢ $4 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 212.5 BUY Over 60¢ $5 4d
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) BUY Hurricanes 30¢ $3 5d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 78¢ $8 7d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 43¢ $4 9d
Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5) BUY Hurricanes 71¢ $6 12d
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 69¢ $1 15d
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 69¢ $7 15d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 60¢ $6 17d
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5) BUY Minnesota Twins 24¢ $2 19d
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 75¢ $9 22d
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 60¢ $3 22d
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens BUY Hurricanes 57¢ $5 24d
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 45¢ $0 26d
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 45¢ $6 26d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 34¢ $2 27d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 42¢ $0 29d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 42¢ $2 29d
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 56¢ $6 32d
Sabres vs. Canadiens: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 52¢ $5 33d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $101 35d
Rolex Paris Masters: Zizou Bergs vs Jannik Sinner BUY Bergs $7 231d
Rolex Paris Masters: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Zverev 98¢ $2,163 231d
Spread: Nuggets (-12.5) BUY Pelicans 48¢ $464 231d
Spread: Nuggets (-12.5) BUY Pelicans 48¢ $22 231d
Lakers vs. Timberwolves: O/U 223.5 BUY Over 54¢ $503 231d
Spread: Timberwolves (-6.5) BUY Lakers 49¢ $324 231d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $100.95 · official $100.95 (match) · 83 history records