Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T03:31:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
EB 0xeb23…16b8 other 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 159d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$37 (-11%) realized −$29 · open −$8
Gross ROI / mkt -54% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -59% what you keep after slip
Net edge-59%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate17%2W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days−$1
14 days+$8
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 60% −$37
other 33% −$10
world 8% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-58.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -55.2% -59.5% 33% 33% -12.0%
≤30d 6 -23.2% -30.5% 33% 33% -7.7%
≤90d 7 -27.7% -34.6% 29% 29% -16.0%
all 12 -54.5% -58.8% 17% 17% -26.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -58.8% 17% -26.8%
10% -62.8% 17% -33.8%
15% -66.4% 0% -40.2%
20% -69.7% 0% -46.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -54% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -86% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$7 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

159d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized−$29
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses2 / 10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)12 / 13
History coverage159d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 70¢ 52¢ $30 $22 −$8 (-26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $26 +$9 +34%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $5 −$5 -95%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $28 +$9 +32%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 08 $102 −$3 -3%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $42 −$1 -3%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 30 $40 −$22 -55%
Will "Tití Me Preguntó" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime sho Feb 08 $11 −$11 -100%
US government shutdown Saturday? Jan 30 $7 −$7 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 30 $20 −$12 -60%
Machado wears a dress or skirt during next Trump meeting? Jan 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Jan 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 70¢ $31 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $35 32h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $26 39h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 56¢ $5 6d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $38 7d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $28 7d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 20¢ $29 15d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 26¢ $40 15d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 33¢ $40 15d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 30¢ $42 15d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 72¢ $41 15d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 67¢ $42 16d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 38¢ $31 17d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes $5 54d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes $20 67d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes $13 67d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 23¢ $20 68d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 12¢ $20 68d
Will "Tití Me Preguntó" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime sho BUY No 36¢ $11 135d
US government shutdown Saturday? BUY No 13¢ $7 144d
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? SELL Yes $8 144d
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $20 145d
Machado wears a dress or skirt during next Trump meeting? BUY Yes $4 159d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 159d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.07 · official $22.07 (match) · 25 history records