Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T16:21:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EB 0xeb28…3694 crypto 471 markets active 2h ago coverage 215d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,480 (+1%) realized +$2,783 · open −$1,303
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate67%296W / 149L
Whale WR81%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$295per market
Trades / day9.1pace
Fees−$184est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$1,917now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,370
7 days+$2,435
14 days+$1,647
30 days+$1,447
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% +$3,067
other 25% −$5,300
sports 21% +$4,159
crypto 5% −$281
politics 1% +$52
finance 1% −$237
weather 0% −$79
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 84 +10.2% -0.3% 73% 42% -3.3%
≤30d 130 +21.8% +10.2% 68% 39% -7.1%
≤90d 290 -17.4% -25.2% 53% 25% -9.1%
all 445 -8.0% -16.8% 67% 29% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.8% 29% -7.5%
10% -24.8% 13% -16.4%
15% -32.0% 9% -24.5%
20% -38.7% 7% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 81% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -13% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$69 vs −$129 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

215d coverage
Net worth$1,917
Realized+$2,783
Unrealized−$1,303
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses296 / 149
Whale WR (big bets)81%
Est. fees paid−$184
Open positions25
Markets (closed)445 / 471
History coverage215d
Avg bet$295
Trades / day9.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 25 History 445 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by June 30, 2026? No 94¢ 99¢ $420 $444 +$24 (+6%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? No 88¢ 97¢ $327 $359 +$32 (+10%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No 56¢ 18¢ $592 $186 −$407 (-69%)
World Cup: Scoreless Team? Yes 72¢ 87¢ $109 $132 +$23 (+21%)
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? No 92¢ 99¢ $100 $108 +$8 (+8%)
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? No 93¢ 99¢ $100 $106 +$6 (+6%)
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $110 $105 −$5 (-5%)
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 Over 96¢ 96¢ $96 $96 −$0 (-0%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 82¢ 81¢ $82 $81 −$1 (-1%)
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? Yes 6¢ 12¢ $30 $60 +$30 (+101%)
Will Australia send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 98¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+1%)
Will USD fall to 1.5M Iranian rials by June 30? No 94¢ 88¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-6%)
Will USD reach 1.8M Iranian rials by June 30? Yes 83¢ 4¢ $874 $37 −$837 (-96%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? Yes 52¢ 16¢ $104 $33 −$71 (-68%)
Will Saudi Arabia send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? No 88¢ 97¢ $25 $27 +$2 (+10%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 92¢ 99¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+7%)
Will South Korea send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+2%)
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Yes 78¢ 82¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+6%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Yes 79¢ 81¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+3%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 60¢ 56¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-6%)
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31? Yes 64¢ 16¢ $9 $2 −$6 (-74%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Yes 47¢ 40¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-16%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $101 $1 −$100 (-99%)
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? Yes 14¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-96%)
Will Pete Hegseth enter Iran by June 30? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $922 +$78 +8%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $375 +$125 +33%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $1,654 +$110 +7%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $194 +$6 +3%
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $600 +$400 +67%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $989 +$96 +10%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 22 $1,766 +$27 +2%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $740 +$260 +35%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $220 −$220 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $251 −$251 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $710 −$710 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $144 +$56 +39%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $466 +$34 +7%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $210 +$790 +376%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $415 +$85 +20%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $415 +$85 +20%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $770 +$230 +30%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $810 +$190 +24%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $445 +$55 +12%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $455 +$45 +10%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $104 −$16 -16%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $205 +$795 +388%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $903 +$97 +11%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $487 +$13 +3%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $79 −$78 -99%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $381 −$380 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $700 −$693 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $660 +$340 +52%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $410 +$90 +22%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $479 +$21 +4%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $201 +$37 +18%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $501 +$20 +4%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $503 +$100 +20%
Donyell Malen: 3+ goals Jun 20 $15 $0 +1%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $506 +$301 +60%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $482 −$482 -100%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $200 +$17 +8%
Álex Arce: 3+ goals Jun 20 $15 $0 +1%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $502 +$60 +12%
Danilo Santos: 2+ goals Jun 20 $15 $0 +1%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $100 +$4 +4%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $100 +$2 +2%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $100 +$16 +16%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $100 +$10 +10%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $600 +$400 +67%
Christian Pulisic: 3+ goals Jun 19 $64 +$1 +1%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $3,502 +$69 +2%
Folarin Balogun: 3+ goals Jun 19 $20 $0 +1%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $112 1h
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 1h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $96 3h
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 10¢ $7 15h
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 10¢ $3 15h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 90¢ $5 18h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 90¢ $442 18h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 90¢ $3 18h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 75¢ $375 18h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 95¢ $299 18h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 95¢ $38 18h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 95¢ $461 18h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 95¢ $19 18h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 95¢ $133 18h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 96¢ $13 19h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 96¢ $241 19h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 97¢ $194 19h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 92¢ $922 19h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $349 22h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $7 22h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $14 22h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $19 22h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $20 22h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $7 22h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $74 22h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $222 22h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $7 22h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $20 22h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL No 95¢ $38 22h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL No 95¢ $500 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,917.08 · official $1,917.11 (match) · 2336 history records