Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:13:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
EB 0xeb2e…9b53 sports 26 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$2,584 (+15%) realized +$2,372 · open +$212
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate40%8W / 12L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$646per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Fees−$226est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$3,618now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3,044
7 days+$349
14 days+$1,513
30 days+$1,513
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% +$2,320
other 10% −$410
crypto 3% −$186
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-20.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -26.1% -33.1% 33% 22% -6.4%
≤30d 20 -12.2% -20.5% 40% 30% +1.2%
≤90d 20 -12.2% -20.5% 40% 30% +1.2%
all 20 -12.2% -20.5% 40% 30% +1.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.5% 30% +1.2%
10% ← realistic here -28.1% 25% -8.4%
15% -35.1% 20% -17.3%
20% -41.4% 15% -25.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 81% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$530) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$583 vs −$263 · ×2.22 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.48 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$3,618
Realized+$2,372
Unrealized+$212
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses8 / 12
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$226
Open positions6
Markets (closed)20 / 26
History coverage10d
Avg bet$646
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 78¢ 100¢ $2,086 $2,662 +$576 (+28%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $503 $506 +$3 (+0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $331 $334 +$3 (+1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $77 $76 −$1 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-1%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Yes 42¢ $373 $4 −$369 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $177 −$35 -20%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $21 −$11 -55%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $71 −$61 -86%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $206 −$148 -72%
Knicks vs. Spurs: Team to Score First Jun 14 $48 −$48 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $1,622 +$3,104 +191%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $528 −$45 -9%
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) Jun 14 $105 −$11 -10%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $4,120 +$300 +7%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $2,856 −$2,396 -84%
Knicks vs. Spurs: Team to Score First Jun 11 $77 −$77 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-15.5) Jun 11 $9 −$9 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: 1H Moneyline Jun 11 $274 −$274 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $21 +$16 +76%
Spurs vs. Knicks: Team to Score First Jun 11 $46 +$15 +32%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 199.5 Jun 11 $522 +$59 +11%
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $316 −$38 -12%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $530 +$7 +1%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $1,238 +$494 +40%
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H Moneyline Jun 06 $360 +$670 +186%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 96¢ $100 16m
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 95¢ $97 16m
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 88¢ $313 17m
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 86¢ $84 18m
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 86¢ $91 18m
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 82¢ $209 20m
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 77¢ $209 21m
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 77¢ $84 21m
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 74¢ $52 22m
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 73¢ $210 23m
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 71¢ $524 24m
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 70¢ $105 24m
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 69¢ $105 25m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $13 32m
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $31 38m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 15¢ $16 39m
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 45¢ $88 40m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $90 43m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $180 43m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $180 43m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 56¢ $105 45m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $90 50m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $90 50m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $105 51m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 50¢ $53 52m
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 43¢ $53 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 43¢ $38 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $142 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 37¢ $11 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 33¢ $10 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,617.95 · official $3,617.95 (match) · 107 history records