Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T00:44:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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EB 0xeb2e…7821 sports 309 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (2471 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL −$5,153 (-4%) realized −$4,930 · open −$223
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +92% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +48% what you keep after slip
Net edge+48%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate55%132W / 109L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$417per market
Trades / day2471.0pace
Fees−$1,202est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$13,868now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% +$6,325
other 42% +$910
crypto 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (2471 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)+73.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 241 +92.0% +73.7% 55% 24% -2.3%
≤30d 241 +92.0% +73.7% 55% 24% -2.3%
≤90d 241 +92.0% +73.7% 55% 24% -2.3%
all 241 +92.0% +73.7% 55% 24% -2.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2471.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +73.7% 24% -2.3%
10% ← realistic here +57.1% 20% -11.6%
15% +41.9% 16% -20.2%
20% +28.0% 12% -28.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +92% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +65% → late +119% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
8.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$69 vs −$17 · ×4.12 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.99 per $1 lost it wins $4.99
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$13,868
Realized−$4,930
Unrealized−$223
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses132 / 109
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$1,202
Open positions87
Markets (closed)241 / 309
History coverage1d ⚠
Avg bet$417
Trades / day2471.0
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 87 History 241 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? No 45¢ 44¢ $1,029 $995 −$33 (-3%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? No 49¢ 48¢ $612 $611 −$1 (-0%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? No 47¢ 47¢ $475 $472 −$2 (-1%)
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 2 Korea Republic? No 89¢ 90¢ $429 $434 +$5 (+1%)
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 Over 47¢ 46¢ $378 $372 −$6 (-2%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? No 49¢ 44¢ $379 $339 −$40 (-11%)
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Over 55¢ 55¢ $341 $338 −$3 (-1%)
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 Under 54¢ 54¢ $340 $337 −$3 (-1%)
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? No 76¢ 74¢ $342 $335 −$7 (-2%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? No 79¢ 80¢ $332 $334 +$2 (+1%)
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? No 79¢ 80¢ $332 $334 +$2 (+1%)
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 Mexico? No 87¢ 88¢ $313 $319 +$5 (+2%)
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 2 Mexico? No 89¢ 90¢ $286 $286 +$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 1 Mexico? No 87¢ 86¢ $272 $270 −$2 (-1%)
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 2 Mexico? No 89¢ 90¢ $267 $269 +$2 (+1%)
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 2 Korea Republic? No 87¢ 88¢ $261 $262 +$1 (+1%)
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 Mexico? No 91¢ 92¢ $255 $259 +$4 (+2%)
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Tunisia 51¢ 50¢ $265 $257 −$8 (-3%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? No 42¢ 42¢ $248 $251 +$3 (+1%)
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants San Francisco Giants 48¢ 50¢ $242 $247 +$5 (+2%)
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Ecuador 71¢ 69¢ $245 $240 −$4 (-2%)
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Under 45¢ 44¢ $241 $235 −$6 (-3%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? No 76¢ 76¢ $213 $214 +$1 (+1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? No 35¢ 36¢ $210 $213 +$3 (+1%)
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? No 73¢ 73¢ $204 $205 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $1 −$147 -19402%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 25 $0 −$1 -186%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $0 −$50 -11602%
Exact Score: France 1 - 2 Iraq? Jun 25 $0 $0 +188%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 25 $0 −$44 -32910%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 Jun 25 $0 +$72 +76648%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 25 $2 +$25 +1216%
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $1 −$1 -43%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 25 $0 +$49 +15703%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 3 Saudi Arabia? Jun 25 $19 −$19 -100%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 8.5 Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 25 $0 −$27 -6452%
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals Jun 25 $1 +$16 +2103%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5 Jun 25 $1 −$4 -270%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Neither team to score first? Jun 25 $40 −$40 -100%
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Iraq? Jun 25 $0 +$37 +93554%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 6.5 Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Korea Republic leading at halftime? Jun 25 $304 −$4 -1%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Jun 25 $418 −$3 -1%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 25 $68 −$1 -2%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5 Jun 25 $97 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Brazil? Jun 25 $355 +$1 +0%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 24 $153 −$2 -2%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 Jun 24 $81 −$3 -4%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 24 $753 +$14 +2%
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 Jun 24 $85 −$3 -4%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 24 $222 −$7 -3%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Jun 24 $358 +$3 +1%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 24 $66 $0 +0%
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets Jun 24 $441 +$8 +2%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 Jun 24 $121 −$3 -2%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 24 $374 −$3 -1%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Jun 24 $180 +$1 +0%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Jun 24 $438 +$9 +2%
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 24 $255 −$1 -1%
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 24 $742 +$5 +1%
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5 Jun 24 $475 −$2 -0%
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5 Jun 24 $138 −$5 -3%
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 Jun 24 $437 +$6 +1%
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 24 $411 −$5 -1%
Scotland vs. Brazil: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $57 +$1 +1%
Exact Score: Scotland 2 - 2 Brazil? Jun 24 $78 $0 -0%
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 2 Haiti? Jun 24 $175 $0 -0%
Exact Score: Morocco 0 - 2 Haiti? Jun 24 $119 −$1 -1%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $59 −$4 -6%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 24 $40 +$7 +16%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 0 Brazil? Jun 24 $116 $0 -0%
Exact Score: Morocco 0 - 0 Haiti? Jun 24 $76 −$1 -2%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Draw at halftime? Jun 24 $214 −$1 -0%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $14 +$2 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 76¢ $228 0m
Czechia vs. Mexico: Czechia O/U 0.5 BUY Under 41¢ $172 0m
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $340 0m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 45¢ $16 1m
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 27¢ $5 1m
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 27¢ $7 1m
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 27¢ $3 1m
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 27¢ $0 1m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 45¢ $1 1m
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 24¢ $29 1m
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 27¢ $7 1m
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 27¢ $2 1m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 45¢ $4 1m
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 27¢ $8 1m
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 9¢ $11 2m
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 28¢ $34 2m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 44¢ $78 2m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 44¢ $79 3m
Czechia leading at halftime? BUY No 83¢ $100 4m
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 7¢ $0 4m
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 50¢ $12 4m
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 7¢ $2 4m
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 8¢ $15 4m
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 30¢ $90 5m
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 42¢ $294 5m
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) BUY Tunisia 70¢ $12 5m
Spread: Korea Republic (-2.5) BUY Korea Republic 12¢ $1 5m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 79¢ $95 5m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $64 6m
Spread: Korea Republic (-2.5) BUY Korea Republic 12¢ $1 6m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13,868.45 · official $13,865.86 (match) · 3500 history records