Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:23:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EB 0xeb30…07ad politics 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 76d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$12 (-0%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%1W / 28L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$453per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$9
14 days−$9
30 days−$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 46% −$8
other 37% −$7
crypto 8% −$1
finance 7% −$2
world 1% $0
tech 1% $0
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 23 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 29 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 29 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$943) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses1 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)29 / 29
History coverage76d
Avg bet$453
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 29 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $75 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $956 −$2 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $937 −$1 -0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of June? Jun 17 $918 −$1 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 16 $976 −$2 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $60 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 16 $997 −$2 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $954 −$2 -0%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $95 $0 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 26 $34 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $29 $0 -0%
Will Armenia Alliance win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National May 24 $908 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $56 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? May 24 $13 $0 -1%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Belarus? May 24 $911 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,150 on May 22? May 23 $35 $0 +0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e May 23 $976 −$1 -0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $23 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 23 $936 −$1 -0%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.2T at market close on May 22 $73 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in May? May 22 $943 −$1 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 22 $969 −$1 -0%
2026 Balance of Power: Other May 21 $945 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Byeong-ju win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Electi Apr 07 $88 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Apr 07 $47 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets in April 2026? Apr 07 $29 $0 -0%
Will annual inflation increase by 2.3% in March? Apr 02 $100 $0 -0%
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Apr 02 $28 $0 -0%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 02 $38 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $75 40m
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $954 49m
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $28 56m
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $925 1h
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $27 1h
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $936 1h
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $20 1h
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $908 1h
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $31 1h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $656 1h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $262 1h
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $29 2h
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $918 2h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $974 20h
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $60 20h
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $20 20h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $919 20h
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $25 20h
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $995 20h
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $15 21h
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $978 21h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $27 21h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $738 21h
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $19 21h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $214 21h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $30 21h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $954 22h
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $95 21d
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $80 21d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 99¢ $34 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 91 history records