Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T01:50:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
EB 0xeb36…3009 sports 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$15 (+5%) realized +$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate75%3W / 1L
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day16.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -4.5% -13.6% 75% 25% -5.0%
≤30d 4 -4.5% -13.6% 75% 25% -5.0%
≤90d 4 -4.5% -13.6% 75% 25% -5.0%
all 4 -4.5% -13.6% 75% 25% -5.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 25% -5.0%
10% -21.9% 0% -14.1%
15% -29.4% 0% -22.4%
20% -36.4% 0% -30.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 85% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% too few recent
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$2 · ×2.41 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.22 per $1 lost it wins $7.22
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses3 / 1
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)4 / 4
History coverage1d
Avg bet$73
Trades / day16.0
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 4 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 28 $120 +$3 +2%
Colombia vs. Portugal: Colombia O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $6 −$2 -39%
Panama vs. England: O/U 4.5 Jun 27 $140 +$12 +8%
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $26 +$3 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 91¢ $59 35m
Colombia vs. Portugal: Colombia O/U 0.5 SELL Over 36¢ $2 47m
Colombia vs. Portugal: Colombia O/U 0.5 SELL Over 37¢ $2 55m
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 97¢ $63 58m
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 92¢ $120 1h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Colombia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 60¢ $6 1h
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $29 2h
Panama vs. England: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 99¢ $30 3h
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 90¢ $26 3h
Panama vs. England: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 98¢ $20 3h
Panama vs. England: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 98¢ $5 3h
Panama vs. England: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 90¢ $12 3h
Panama vs. England: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 92¢ $32 3h
Panama vs. England: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 92¢ $31 3h
Panama vs. England: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 92¢ $37 3h
Panama vs. England: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 92¢ $28 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 17 history records