Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T11:20:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
EB 0xeb3a…8f59 other 26 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$98 (-4%) realized −$99 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate64%16W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$106per market
Trades / day5.8pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$101now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$76
7 days+$53
14 days−$115
30 days−$115
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% −$78
sports 14% −$84
crypto 7% +$38
politics 4% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-18.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +7.8% -2.5% 76% 62% -7.4%
≤30d 25 -9.5% -18.1% 64% 52% -13.5%
≤90d 25 -9.5% -18.1% 64% 52% -13.5%
all 25 -9.5% -18.1% 64% 52% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.1% 52% -13.5%
10% -25.9% 28% -21.8%
15% -33.1% 24% -29.4%
20% -39.6% 24% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$65 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$101
Realized−$99
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses16 / 9
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)25 / 26
History coverage8d
Avg bet$106
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 27 $51 +$11 +22%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $50 +$12 +24%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $101 +$53 +52%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $248 +$53 +22%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 25 $5 −$2 -38%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $274 +$23 +8%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $51 +$26 +52%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $51 +$26 +52%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $121 −$121 -100%
England to score first vs. Ghana? Jun 23 $200 −$102 -51%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 23 $25 −$1 -4%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $178 +$21 +12%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $25 +$14 +57%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $172 +$17 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $53 +$10 +19%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 22 $110 +$10 +9%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $196 +$23 +12%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $166 +$28 +17%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $104 +$64 +62%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $191 −$190 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$77 +76%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $8 −$8 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 19 $52 −$50 -96%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 19 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $25 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 3h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 80¢ $50 18h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 18h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 91¢ $3 2d
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 15¢ $3 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $215 2d
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 74¢ $30 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $121 3d
England to score first vs. Ghana? SELL Yes 81¢ $97 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 41¢ $25 3d
England to score first vs. Ghana? BUY Yes 83¢ $200 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 69¢ $200 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 70¢ $198 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 99¢ $198 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 98¢ $77 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 41¢ $25 4d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $40 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 69¢ $76 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $62 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 81¢ $63 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $2 4d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $25 5d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 82¢ $101 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 5d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 99¢ $120 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $101.04 · official $101.04 (match) · 60 history records