trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | Yes | 47¢ | 46¢ | $8 | $8 | −$0 (-1%) |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? | No | 59¢ | 58¢ | $3 | $3 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? | No | 70¢ | 76¢ | $2 | $2 | +$0 (+9%) |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? | Yes | 34¢ | 39¢ | $2 | $2 | +$0 (+16%) |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | Yes | 12¢ | 16¢ | $1 | $2 | +$0 (+39%) |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | Yes | 19¢ | 18¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-3%) |
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 9¢ | 9¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-2%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? | Jun 12 | $8 | +$1 | +8% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? | Jun 12 | $6 | $0 | -2% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | +3.0% | -6.8% | 50% | 0% | -6.2% |
| ≤30d | 2 | +3.0% | -6.8% | 50% | 0% | -6.2% |
| ≤90d | 2 | +3.0% | -6.8% | 50% | 0% | -6.2% |
| all | 2 | +3.0% | -6.8% | 50% | 0% | -6.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -6.8% | 0% | -6.2% |
| 10% ← realistic here | -15.7% | 0% | -15.2% |
| 15% | -23.9% | 0% | -23.4% |
| 20% | -31.3% | 0% | -30.9% |