Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:37:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EB 0xeb3f…313b other 87 markets active 3d ago coverage 361d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$420 (-9%) realized −$352 · open −$68
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate39%32W / 51L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$67now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$338
30 days−$384
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 32% −$27
politics 30% +$40
world 23% −$501
economics 4% −$56
finance 4% +$204
culture 3% −$6
tech 2% −$67
sports 1% −$30
crypto 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-29.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 8 -42.3% -47.8% 38% 25% -39.8%
≤90d 20 -20.8% -28.3% 40% 30% -28.6%
all 83 -21.6% -29.1% 39% 29% -15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.1% 29% -15.4%
10% -35.9% 22% -23.5%
15% -42.1% 14% -30.9%
20% -47.8% 8% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$24 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

361d coverage
Net worth$67
Realized−$352
Unrealized−$68
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses32 / 51
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)83 / 87
History coverage361d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 83 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 45¢ 21¢ $100 $46 −$54 (-54%)
Will Jorge Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $25 $13 −$12 (-48%)
Will BRICS add a new member in 2026? Yes 45¢ 36¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? Jun 17 $102 +$1 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $160 −$160 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $239 −$179 -75%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Jun 12 $184 +$48 +26%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 03 $50 −$1 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 01 $100 +$37 +37%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $31 −$30 -98%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? May 17 $102 +$27 +26%
Will Trump visit China by June 30? May 13 $50 +$11 +22%
Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026? May 08 $43 −$1 -2%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? May 02 $100 +$19 +19%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026? Apr 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Tisza win at least 100 seats? Apr 12 $50 +$22 +45%
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? Apr 11 $50 −$8 -15%
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026? Apr 11 $100 −$18 -18%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Apr 06 $50 +$2 +4%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 04 $50 $0 -1%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? Apr 03 $40 −$22 -56%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 30 $50 −$1 -1%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 30 $18 −$2 -11%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Mar 24 $100 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on September 15? Mar 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-09-27? Mar 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? Mar 19 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Mexican Grand Prix? Mar 19 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2025? Mar 19 $30 −$30 -100%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on November 6? Mar 19 $40 −$40 -100%
Will FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? Mar 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Colombia win Miss Universe 2025? Mar 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10 Superheavy explode? Mar 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the Central Bank of Colombia announce a decrease at the December Mar 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Palmeiras beat Chelsea in regulation time? Mar 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Abigail Spanberger win by 9-12%? Mar 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian president Mar 19 $82 +$78 +95%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid Mar 19 $15 $0 -2%
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Mar 19 $40 +$1 +2%
Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach 1.1m barrels per day in 202 Mar 02 $200 +$204 +102%
Will André Ventura win 2nd place in the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal Jan 04 $100 +$31 +31%
Will Jensen Huang be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Dec 10 $40 −$40 -99%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 10 $40 −$31 -77%
Will the government shutdown end November 12? Nov 11 $40 +$21 +54%
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11? Nov 09 $40 +$6 +14%
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30? Nov 06 $40 +$32 +79%
Will China lift rare earths export ban by December 31? Oct 30 $40 +$116 +289%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-10-26? Oct 26 $18 −$9 -50%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? Oct 24 $143 −$6 -4%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Oct 19 $40 +$7 +18%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 09 $105 +$12 +12%
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? Oct 06 $40 +$3 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will BRICS add a new member in 2026? SELL Yes 57¢ $123 2d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? AND Will Ecuador vs. Cur BUY 1¢ $3 8d
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? SELL Yes 64¢ $102 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 16¢ $100 13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 17¢ $60 13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 7¢ $60 13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 8¢ $69 13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $170 15d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele SELL Yes 50¢ $232 15d
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 61¢ $102 16d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 33¢ $100 16d
Will BRICS add a new member in 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $8 19d
Will BRICS add a new member in 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $102 19d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian SELL Yes 99¢ $41 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 81¢ $137 26d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 38¢ $31 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 59¢ $100 31d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 64¢ $129 41d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $102 46d
Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $42 50d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY Yes 38¢ $184 50d
Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $34 55d
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $119 56d
Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 58d
Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $8 58d
Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 60d
Will Jorge Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $26 60d
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? BUY No 68¢ $100 67d
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 45¢ $100 70d
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026? BUY No 26¢ $100 73d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $66.88 · official $66.77 (match) · 381 history records