trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect | Jun 14 | $5 | −$2 | -39% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | Jun 14 | $6 | −$2 | -42% |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee | May 15 | $1 | $0 | +6% |
| Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? | May 15 | $5 | $0 | +6% |
| Will annual inflation increase by ≥2.8% in March? | Apr 11 | $20 | +$1 | +3% |
| Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Apr 05 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will Tesla deliver less than 350000 vehicles in Q1 2026 | Apr 04 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? | Apr 04 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the DHS shutdown end after March 31, 2026? | Apr 04 | $5 | +$3 | +59% |
| Will Trump visit China by March 31? | Apr 04 | $10 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Trump visit China by April 30? | Mar 22 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | -40.4% | -46.1% | 0% | 0% | -46.2% |
| ≤30d | 2 | -40.4% | -46.1% | 0% | 0% | -46.2% |
| ≤90d | 11 | -27.8% | -34.7% | 55% | 9% | -42.3% |
| all | 11 | -27.8% | -34.7% | 55% | 9% | -42.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -34.7% | 9% | -42.3% |
| 10% | -40.9% | 9% | -47.8% |
| 15% | -46.6% | 9% | -52.9% |
| 20% | -51.9% | 9% | -57.5% |