Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T16:04:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
EB 0xeb49…693e world 86 markets active 7h ago coverage 146d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$197,556 (-26%) realized −$215,900 · open +$18,344
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate59%39W / 27L
Whale WR41%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8,900per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Fees−$165est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$232,811now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$580
7 days−$3,702
14 days−$6,749
30 days−$161,292
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 84% −$196,459
finance 6% −$1,973
other 5% +$2,136
sports 4% −$4,424
politics 1% +$86
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-30.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -2.4% -11.7% 80% 60% -20.4%
≤30d 38 -19.8% -27.5% 63% 29% -40.9%
≤90d 62 -26.4% -33.4% 60% 27% -45.4%
all 66 -23.1% -30.4% 59% 29% -45.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -30.4% 29% -45.3%
10% ← realistic here -37.1% 14% -50.5%
15% -43.2% 6% -55.3%
20% -48.7% 6% -59.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -43% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -43% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 41% (≥$5,135) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -26% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
9.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$768 vs −$9,219 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

146d coverage
Net worth$232,811
Realized−$215,900
Unrealized+$18,344
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses39 / 27
Whale WR (big bets)41%
Est. fees paid−$165
Open positions20
Markets (closed)66 / 86
History coverage146d
Avg bet$8,900
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 66 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 88¢ 98¢ $119,121 $132,831 +$13,710 (+12%)
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 78¢ 83¢ $19,588 $20,792 +$1,204 (+6%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? No 85¢ 88¢ $12,287 $12,654 +$367 (+3%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No 82¢ 82¢ $11,412 $11,473 +$61 (+1%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 83¢ 88¢ $10,198 $10,785 +$587 (+6%)
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? No 88¢ 86¢ $8,831 $8,677 −$154 (-2%)
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? No 73¢ 84¢ $6,737 $7,787 +$1,050 (+16%)
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? No 85¢ 90¢ $6,323 $6,760 +$437 (+7%)
Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15? Yes 90¢ 92¢ $5,107 $5,211 +$104 (+2%)
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? No 90¢ 95¢ $3,239 $3,428 +$189 (+6%)
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026? No 86¢ 98¢ $2,889 $3,291 +$402 (+14%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? No 85¢ 99¢ $1,900 $2,204 +$304 (+16%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? No 95¢ 98¢ $2,000 $2,058 +$58 (+3%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 80¢ 78¢ $1,190 $1,170 −$19 (-2%)
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026? No 79¢ 83¢ $908 $954 +$46 (+5%)
Will Canada be the furthest advancing host nation at the World Cup? No 90¢ 88¢ $779 $761 −$18 (-2%)
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 Yes 81¢ 83¢ $620 $638 +$18 (+3%)
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? No 93¢ 92¢ $558 $555 −$3 (-1%)
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election? No 86¢ 85¢ $527 $521 −$6 (-1%)
Will Netanyahu publicly insult Trump by June 30? No 96¢ 98¢ $254 $261 +$7 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? Jun 25 $4,547 +$116 +2%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 25 $4,000 +$279 +7%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $1,182 +$142 +12%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? Jun 24 $149 +$44 +30%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? Jun 24 $13 +$2 +12%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Jun 24 $610 +$68 +11%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Jun 24 $4,002 +$967 +24%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Jun 24 $6,336 +$946 +15%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 22 $7,859 −$4,755 -60%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? Jun 22 $1,965 −$1,511 -77%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? Jun 17 $11,233 −$8,998 -80%
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? Jun 17 $3,092 −$2,675 -86%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 16 $212 −$5 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $74,580 +$8,312 +11%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 15 $879 +$67 +8%
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? Jun 13 $3,235 +$241 +7%
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? Jun 13 $2,112 +$76 +4%
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? Jun 12 $64 −$64 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 12 $215 +$5 +2%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $10,605 −$10,569 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $2,105 +$39 +2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 11 $3,937 +$55 +1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 11 $3,952 +$25 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $63,767 −$63,744 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $4,632 −$1,286 -28%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $92,693 −$92,684 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 04 $778 −$778 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 03 $177 −$177 -100%
Will Felix Auger Aliassime win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 03 $20 +$2 +11%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 02 $9,695 +$5,592 +58%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Roland Garros Men's Singles? Jun 02 $762 +$132 +17%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 02 $1,755 +$342 +20%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Jun 02 $694 −$22 -3%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $57,962 +$3,867 +7%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $48,935 +$4,876 +10%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca May 31 $258 −$252 -98%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 29 $14 +$2 +10%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 28 $2,000 +$33 +2%
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? May 26 $1,037 +$12 +1%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30? May 26 $5,595 −$5,519 -99%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7? May 26 $7,270 −$7,218 -99%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15? May 26 $6,999 −$6,899 -99%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28? May 26 $5,135 −$5,079 -99%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? May 26 $2,541 −$2,519 -99%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? May 26 $25,962 −$25,784 -99%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? May 25 $4,763 +$163 +3%
Israel closes its airspace by May 24? May 25 $8 +$2 +27%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through July 31? May 25 $899 −$899 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 25 $7,500 +$1,418 +19%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through December 31? May 22 $581 −$581 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $7,830 6h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 87¢ $7,830 6h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $1,740 6h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 87¢ $1,740 6h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 88¢ $382 30h
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the BUY Yes 80¢ $225 30h
Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by Augus BUY Yes 92¢ $1,605 30h
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the BUY No 86¢ $530 30h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? SELL No 98¢ $2,741 30h
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the BUY Yes 80¢ $933 30h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? SELL No 99¢ $933 30h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 88¢ $4,279 30h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $4,279 30h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 87¢ $765 32h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 93¢ $558 32h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 89¢ $988 41h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? SELL No 99¢ $989 41h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 89¢ $194 41h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $194 41h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 89¢ $693 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $15 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $678 2d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? BUY No 87¢ $4,969 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $4,969 2d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $690 2d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $2,892 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $3,582 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 88¢ $2,712 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $2,712 2d
Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by Augus BUY Yes 90¢ $1,365 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $232,810.90 · official $232,810.90 (match) · 941 history records