Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:00:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
EB 0xeb51…733c sports 564 markets active 3h ago coverage 451d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$324 (+1%) realized +$335 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%248W / 313L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$272est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$164now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$54
7 days+$16
14 days+$230
30 days−$756
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$337
other 2% −$196
culture 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +4.8% -5.1% 51% 51% -8.7%
≤30d 126 -10.8% -19.3% 44% 44% -19.4%
≤90d 331 -1.9% -11.3% 46% 46% -9.1%
all 561 -1.7% -11.0% 44% 44% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 44% -9.0%
10% -19.5% 43% -17.7%
15% -27.3% 43% -25.7%
20% -34.4% 41% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$40 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

451d coverage
Net worth$164
Realized+$335
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses248 / 313
Est. fees paid−$272
Open positions3
Markets (closed)561 / 564
History coverage451d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 561 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 60¢ 60¢ $75 $76 +$1 (+1%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Atlanta Braves 53¢ 54¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $50 $38 −$12 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 57 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $50 +$20 +40%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 18 $51 +$42 +83%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 17 $51 +$56 +109%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-6.5) Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $51 +$49 +97%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 17 $76 +$51 +67%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 17 $51 +$36 +70%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $51 +$53 +105%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 15 $51 −$2 -5%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $30 +$28 +93%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $51 +$88 +172%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $76 +$60 +79%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 14 $51 +$63 +124%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $51 +$39 +76%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 14 $51 −$50 -99%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 14 $51 +$49 +97%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $51 +$60 +119%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $51 +$45 +90%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $51 +$51 +101%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 +$34 +165%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 11 $51 +$44 +86%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $51 −$50 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 09 $101 −$100 -99%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 09 $51 +$40 +79%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 09 $51 +$58 +114%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 09 $51 +$58 +114%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 09 $51 +$60 +119%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 09 $51 +$65 +129%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 09 $51 +$68 +134%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 09 $101 +$68 +67%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres Jun 08 $51 +$47 +93%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres Jun 07 $51 +$58 +114%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 07 $51 −$50 -98%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres Jun 06 $51 −$50 -99%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 06 $51 −$50 -98%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 05 $51 +$44 +86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 60¢ $76 2h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $50 19h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 54¢ $51 26h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 50¢ $51 26h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY San Diego Padres 47¢ $51 26h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 50¢ $51 26h
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-6.5) BUY Phoenix Mercury 50¢ $51 26h
Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire BUY Seattle Storm 40¢ $51 26h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 50¢ $51 2d
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 38¢ $51 2d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 59¢ $76 2d
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 58¢ $51 2d
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Los Angeles Sparks 35¢ $51 3d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 46¢ $51 3d
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 36¢ $51 3d
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 48¢ $51 3d
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians SELL Detroit Tigers 52¢ $48 3d
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Detroit Tigers 53¢ $51 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $30 3d
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 47¢ $51 4d
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY San Diego Padres 44¢ $51 4d
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies 36¢ $51 4d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY St. Louis Cardinals 50¢ $51 4d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 55¢ $76 4d
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Seattle Mariners 55¢ $51 4d
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Seattle Mariners 48¢ $51 5d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 52¢ $51 5d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 50¢ $51 5d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 49¢ $51 5d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY St. Louis Cardinals 45¢ $51 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $164.31 · official $164.32 (match) · 1150 history records