Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T21:09:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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EB 0xeb52…f12e crypto 85 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$147 (-7%) realized −$137 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%37W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day13.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$228now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$117
7 days−$182
14 days−$328
30 days−$328
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 74% −$149
other 25% −$178
sports 1% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-22.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -4.9% -14.0% 49% 49% -26.6%
≤30d 81 -14.3% -22.5% 46% 46% -26.6%
≤90d 81 -14.3% -22.5% 46% 46% -26.6%
all 81 -14.3% -22.5% 46% 46% -26.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.5% 46% -26.6%
10% -29.9% 43% -33.6%
15% -36.7% 38% -40.0%
20% -42.9% 31% -45.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$22 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$228
Realized−$137
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses37 / 44
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)81 / 85
History coverage7d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day13.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 81 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $206 $202 −$4 (-2%)
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $11 $17 +$7 (+62%)
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-52%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $11 $4 −$7 (-62%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 40 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 27 $51 +$42 +82%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 27, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 27 $30 −$28 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 27 $50 +$42 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 27 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 27 $110 +$91 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 27 $110 −$110 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 27 $73 −$68 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 27 $41 +$32 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 27 $81 −$76 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 27 $34 −$32 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 27 $11 +$4 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 27 $11 +$8 +68%
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 27 $11 +$10 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 27 $11 +$10 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 27 $20 +$17 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 27 $11 +$43 +384%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 27 $11 −$10 -92%
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 26 $25 −$23 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 26 $20 +$4 +21%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $12 −$11 -91%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $12 −$11 -91%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 22 $10 −$9 -94%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 22, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 22 $4 +$6 +152%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 22, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 22 $33 −$31 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 22 $20 +$17 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 22 $12 −$12 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 22 $14 +$6 +42%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 22, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 22 $12 −$11 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 22 $12 −$11 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 22 $12 +$10 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 22 $12 +$16 +133%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 22, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 22 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 22 $12 +$5 +38%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $23 −$22 -95%
Spread: Austria (-5.5) Jun 22 $12 −$11 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 20 $53 −$50 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 20 $30 +$23 +76%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 20 $56 −$53 -94%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 20, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 20 $29 −$28 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 20 $24 −$23 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 20 $24 −$23 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 20 $13 +$8 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 20 $27 +$23 +84%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 20 $18 +$15 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 20 $36 +$26 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 20 $13 +$14 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 20 $18 +$18 +104%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 20, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 20 $19 −$18 -94%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 20, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 20 $12 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 20 $12 +$3 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 26¢ $206 55m
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 27, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $30 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $110 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $110 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $73 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $81 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $34 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $41 2h
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 0¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $20 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $11 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $11 2h
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $11 2h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 27¢ $11 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $11 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 26, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $25 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $24 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $20 30h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 0¢ $12 30h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 0¢ $12 30h
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 4d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 22, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $33 4d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 22, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $4 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $37 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $228.22 · official $228.22 (match) · 132 history records