Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:28:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
EB 0xeb53…7b74 sports 54 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (99 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$730 (+10%) realized +$741 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate65%34W / 18L
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$129per market
Trades / day99.2pace
Fees−$105est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$713
other 2% −$101
crypto 1% +$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (99 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 +23.8% +12.0% 65% 50% -0.7%
≤30d 52 +23.8% +12.0% 65% 50% -0.7%
≤90d 52 +23.8% +12.0% 65% 50% -0.7%
all 52 +23.8% +12.0% 65% 50% -0.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover99.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +12.0% 50% -0.7%
10% ← realistic here +1.3% 38% -10.2%
15% -8.5% 27% -18.9%
20% -17.5% 23% -26.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +46% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$59 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.61 per $1 lost it wins $1.61
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized+$741
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses34 / 18
Est. fees paid−$105
Open positions2
Markets (closed)52 / 54
History coverage2d
Avg bet$129
Trades / day99.2
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 Over 3¢ 3¢ $18 $16 −$2 (-12%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 5.5 Over 5¢ 3¢ $18 $10 −$8 (-47%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $101 +$61 +60%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $262 +$37 +14%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $108 −$74 -69%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $262 +$7 +3%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $209 +$52 +25%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $30 +$352 +1181%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -97%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $100 +$63 +63%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 15 $202 −$87 -43%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $160 −$49 -30%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $127 +$22 +17%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $203 +$90 +44%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $412 +$34 +8%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $166 +$31 +18%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $101 −$81 -80%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $277 +$88 +32%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $240 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$19 +76%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $129 +$42 +32%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $40 −$11 -29%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $43 +$4 +10%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $351 +$24 +7%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $201 +$33 +16%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $242 +$83 +34%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $142 +$99 +70%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $76 +$67 +88%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $178 −$176 -98%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $99 +$80 +81%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $90 −$88 -98%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $201 −$117 -58%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $84 −$78 -92%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $51 +$65 +128%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $109 +$29 +27%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $139 +$41 +29%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $98 +$10 +11%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $100 −$2 -2%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $491 −$14 -3%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $102 −$20 -19%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $183 +$4 +2%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $50 +$20 +40%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $101 +$53 +52%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $86 −$85 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $48 +$38 +79%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $46 −$45 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $122 +$18 +14%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $51 +$61 +121%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $59 +$6 +10%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $92 +$61 +66%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $162 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 90¢ $299 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 78¢ $262 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 14¢ $34 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 36¢ $30 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 71¢ $62 2h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 5¢ $19 2h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 3¢ $19 2h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 43¢ $108 2h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL G2 100¢ $107 2h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 30¢ $33 3h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Natus Vincere 80¢ $239 3h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 27¢ $93 3h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 66¢ $201 3h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 17¢ $3 3h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 37¢ $141 3h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL G2 64¢ $58 3h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 100¢ $382 4h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $9 4h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 4h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 4h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 4h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $15 4h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 38¢ $35 4h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL G2 80¢ $162 4h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 48¢ $100 5h
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY Solary 12¢ $74 5h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner SELL Solary 10¢ $13 5h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner BUY Solary 46¢ $51 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.48 · official $25.48 (match) · 164 history records