Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:34:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
EB 0xeb54…ed59 sports 249 markets active 1h ago coverage 240d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$320 (+4%) realized +$322 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%107W / 131L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$46est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$112now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$80
7 days+$87
14 days+$231
30 days+$448
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$204
other 1% +$48
weather 0% −$10
crypto 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-1.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +33.4% +20.7% 42% 42% +0.8%
≤30d 46 +33.0% +20.3% 52% 52% +8.0%
≤90d 48 +27.5% +15.3% 50% 50% +2.5%
all 238 +9.4% -1.0% 45% 45% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.0% 45% -6.4%
10% -10.5% 45% -15.4%
15% -19.1% 43% -23.6%
20% -27.0% 41% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$29 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

240d coverage
Net worth$112
Realized+$322
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses107 / 131
Est. fees paid−$46
Open positions4
Markets (closed)238 / 249
History coverage240d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 238 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Over 57¢ 57¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Over 44¢ 42¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-3%)
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Paraguay? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 102 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 29 $1 +$5 +784%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $51 −$31 -62%
Brazil vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 29 $51 +$68 +134%
Brazil vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 29 $102 −$61 -60%
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 29 $7 −$7 -98%
South Africa vs. Canada: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $30 −$17 -55%
Exact Score: South Africa 2 - 2 Canada? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -97%
Algeria vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $51 +$42 +83%
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $51 +$44 +86%
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 4.5 Jun 28 $51 +$42 +84%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $51 +$36 +70%
Exact Score: Algeria 3 - 1 Austria? Jun 28 $3 −$3 -97%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $51 −$32 -63%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 28? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $51 +$44 +86%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $51 −$20 -40%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $50 −$30 -59%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $51 −$14 -27%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $51 +$37 +73%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $41 −$14 -34%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $51 −$4 -8%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 21 $31 +$101 +330%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $51 −$27 -53%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $51 +$47 +93%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 4 Winner Jun 21 $41 −$2 -5%
Will Leviatán win Valorant Masters London 2026? Jun 21 $31 +$45 +148%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $51 +$37 +73%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $51 +$53 +105%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $50 +$15 +29%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $50 +$20 +40%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $50 −$26 -52%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $101 −$100 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $51 −$50 -99%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $111 +$48 +44%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $51 −$50 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $51 +$49 +97%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $51 +$47 +93%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $61 +$55 +90%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $71 −$70 -99%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 12 $51 +$49 +97%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 11 $51 −$50 -98%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $51 +$77 +152%
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Sta Jun 08 $51 +$71 +140%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 08 $51 −$50 -98%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 08 $51 +$37 +73%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 06 $151 +$51 +34%
UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Bantamweight, Ma May 30 $75 −$73 -98%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Dragon Ranger Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Grou Apr 11 $51 −$50 -98%
Valorant: TYLOO vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - China Evolution Series Act Mar 22 $80 −$80 -100%
Valorant: Any Questions Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO5) - China Evolution Se Mar 21 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $7 50m
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 12¢ $7 51m
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $51 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $51 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 17¢ $19 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 42¢ $0 2h
Brazil vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $119 2h
Brazil vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 19¢ $24 2h
Brazil vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 38¢ $51 3h
Brazil vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 42¢ $51 3h
Brazil vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 10¢ $17 3h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $7 3h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 3h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $51 3h
Brazil vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 29¢ $51 3h
South Africa vs. Canada: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 23¢ $14 24h
South Africa vs. Canada: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 49¢ $30 25h
Exact Score: South Africa 2 - 2 Canada? BUY Yes $5 27h
South Africa vs. Canada: 1st Half O/U 0.5 AND Exact Score: South Afric BUY 13¢ $10 27h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 54¢ $51 41h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $51 42h
Exact Score: Algeria 3 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes $3 42h
Algeria vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 54¢ $51 42h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $51 43h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 22¢ $19 43h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $51 44h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 28? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 2d
Senegal vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U BUY 20¢ $20 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 53¢ $51 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $112.26 · official $112.26 (match) · 426 history records