Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T07:04:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
EB 0xeb55…8e9d crypto 1491 markets active 0h ago coverage 68d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$335 (+3%) realized +$335 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%794W / 694L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day22.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$22
7 days−$21
14 days−$140
30 days−$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$37
world 0% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 140 -3.6% -12.8% 51% 51% -11.4%
≤30d 698 +0.1% -9.5% 53% 53% -9.8%
≤90d 1488 +0.7% -8.9% 53% 53% -9.3%
all 1488 +0.7% -8.9% 53% 53% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.9% 53% -9.3%
10% ← realistic here -17.6% 53% -18.0%
15% -25.6% 53% -25.9%
20% -32.9% 53% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$6 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$18
Realized+$335
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses794 / 694
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1488 / 1491
History coverage68d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day22.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1488 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Up 51¢ 50¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Up 51¢ 50¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Down 52¢ 50¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 22 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 22 $6 +$6 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $16 −$16 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 21 $8 +$7 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 21 $4 +$4 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 21 $6 +$6 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 21 $6 +$5 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 21 $4 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 21 $4 +$4 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 21 $4 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 21 $4 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 20 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 20 $12 +$11 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 20 $8 +$7 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 20 $8 +$7 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 20 $12 +$11 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 20 $12 +$11 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 20 $6 +$5 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 20 $6 +$5 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 20 $4 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 20 $4 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 20 $4 +$3 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 20 $4 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 20 $6 +$6 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 19 $8 −$8 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $6 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 9h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 10¢ $16 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $8 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $6 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $6 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $6 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $6 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $6 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $6 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $6 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $6 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $6 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $4 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $4 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $4 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $4 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $4 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $4 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $4 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.67 · official $17.67 (match) · 3055 history records