Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:03:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EB 0xeb56…392b politics 72 markets active 1h ago coverage 77d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,262 (-2%) realized −$1,262 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate10%7W / 64L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$765per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$448now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$7
14 days−$14
30 days−$51
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 56% −$40
other 35% −$1,284
economics 6% −$1
culture 1% −$1
crypto 1% +$1
world 1% $0
sports 0% +$36
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 30 -2.3% -11.6% 10% 3% -9.8%
≤90d 71 -0.4% -9.8% 10% 6% -11.7%
all 71 -0.4% -9.8% 10% 6% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 6% -11.7%
10% -18.5% 6% -20.1%
15% -26.4% 4% -27.9%
20% -33.6% 4% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,038) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$22 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$448
Realized−$1,262
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses7 / 64
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)71 / 72
History coverage77d
Avg bet$765
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $449 $448 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 18 $339 −$1 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $257 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $631 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $830 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $1,385 −$2 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $654 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $706 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $890 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 05 $883 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $911 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $1,038 −$1 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $1,351 −$2 -0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? Jun 04 $153 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? Jun 04 $357 $0 +0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $512 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $350 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 29 $475 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $1,877 −$2 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 26 $799 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $591 −$1 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 25 $594 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $795 −$1 -0%
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $643 −$1 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $889 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $861 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $884 −$1 -0%
Will Zhejiang Zhiye FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC end in a draw? May 21 $53 +$18 +34%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $231 $0 -0%
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals May 20 $42 −$42 -100%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 19 $236 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $264 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 19 $537 −$1 -0%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins May 19 $51 +$48 +93%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $276 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $1,403 −$2 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 17 $312 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 17 $1,344 −$2 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 16 $228 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 16 $248 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 16 $319 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 15 $313 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 15 $317 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 15 $361 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 15 $304 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 14 $515 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $263 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 13 $359 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 13 $304 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 12 $304 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 12 $355 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $449 1h
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $338 1h
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $339 4h
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $257 5h
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $257 8h
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $630 3d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $631 4d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $829 5d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $830 6d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $755 6d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $756 6d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $653 6d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $654 6d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $705 6d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $706 7d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $775 11d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $776 11d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $889 11d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $890 12d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $881 12d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $883 13d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $910 13d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $911 13d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $677 13d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $678 13d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $989 13d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $991 14d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $511 18d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $512 18d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $350 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $448.38 · official $448.38 (match) · 222 history records