Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:47:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

EB 0xeb5c…02b5 sports 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d

TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)

Total PnL +$15 (+2%) realized +$15 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip

Net edge-22%after slip

Net WR38%break-even

Win rate43%9W / 12L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$32per market

Trades / day11.9pace

Fees−$7est.

Kalshi-fit81%portable

Net worth$88now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +38%

net ROI/market (all)-15.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	21	-6.9%	-15.8%	43%	38%	-3.7%
≤30d	21	-6.9%	-15.8%	43%	38%	-3.7%
≤90d	21	-6.9%	-15.8%	43%	38%	-3.7%
all	21	-6.9%	-15.8%	43%	38%	-3.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover11.9 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-15.8%	38%	-3.7%
10%	-23.8%	38%	-12.9%
15%	-31.2%	29%	-21.3%
20%	-37.9%	24%	-29.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 42% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -7% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -48% → late +30% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$25 vs −$15 · ×1.64 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.23 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage

Net worth$88

Realized+$15

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)43%

Wins / losses9 / 12

Est. fees paid−$7

Open positions5

Markets (closed)21 / 26

History coverage4d

Avg bet$32

Trades / day11.9

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 5 History 21 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Spread: Spain (-2.5)	Cabo Verde	69¢	94¢	$20	$27	+$7 (+37%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5	Under	74¢	98¢	$20	$26	+$6 (+32%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5	Under	51¢	90¢	$10	$18	+$8 (+77%)
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	Yes	13¢	33¢	$5	$13	+$8 (+156%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5	Over	77¢	10¢	$20	$2	−$18 (-88%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score	Yes	39¢	6¢	$5	$1	−$4 (-85%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5	Jun 15	$51	+$39	+78%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score in First Half	Jun 15	$2	−$2	-94%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5	Jun 15	$10	−$7	-69%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5	Jun 14	$20	+$10	+48%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5	Jun 14	$101	+$33	+33%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score	Jun 14	$20	+$17	+84%
Netherlands leading at halftime?	Jun 14	$10	−$10	-98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$41	−$40	-99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 2nd Half O/U 1.5	Jun 14	$302	+$94	+31%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$5	−$1	-21%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$5	+$23	+442%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$5	−$5	-98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$15	−$14	-88%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Jun 12	$1	−$1	-95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET	Jun 12	$1	−$1	-96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET	Jun 12	$1	$0	+10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET	Jun 12	$1	+$1	+114%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	Jun 12	$5	−$5	-96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET	Jun 12	$5	−$5	-95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	Jun 12	$5	+$5	+100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 11	$92	−$90	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5	SELL Under	99¢	$90	56m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5	BUY Under	55¢	$51	1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5)	BUY Cabo Verde	69¢	$20	1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	74¢	$20	1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	51¢	$10	1h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	BUY Yes	13¢	$5	1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score in First Half	SELL Yes	1¢	$0	1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5	SELL Over	26¢	$24	1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5)	SELL Spain	31¢	$6	1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5	SELL Over	18¢	$3	1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score in First Half	BUY Yes	16¢	$2	1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	77¢	$20	1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	39¢	$5	1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	54¢	$51	1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5)	BUY Spain	53¢	$10	1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5	BUY Over	56¢	$10	1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	99¢	$30	20h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5	SELL Over	99¢	$134	20h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score	SELL Yes	99¢	$37	20h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	66¢	$20	20h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	53¢	$20	21h
Netherlands leading at halftime?	BUY Yes	36¢	$10	21h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	50¢	$20	21h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	52¢	$20	21h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	74¢	$101	22h
Germany vs. Curaçao: 2nd Half O/U 1.5	SELL Over	99¢	$396	23h
Germany vs. Curaçao: 2nd Half O/U 1.5	BUY Over	75¢	$302	23h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	2¢	$4	28h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	100¢	$28	34h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	2¢	$5	41h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $87.53 · official $87.53 (match) · 48 history records