Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:14:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
EB 0xeb5e…2e32 other 16 markets active 8h ago coverage 159d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$10 (+24%) realized +$11 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +18% what you keep after slip
Net edge+18%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate60%9W / 6L
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$9
14 days+$9
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% +$5
sports 39% +$4
world 14% +$2
politics 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)+17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +29.1% +16.8% 57% 50% +13.6%
≤30d 14 +29.1% +16.8% 57% 50% +13.6%
≤90d 14 +29.1% +16.8% 57% 50% +13.6%
all 15 +29.9% +17.5% 60% 53% +15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +17.5% 53% +15.6%
10% +6.3% 53% +4.6%
15% -4.0% 53% -5.5%
20% -13.4% 40% -14.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 34% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +30% · $-wt +28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +56% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.6 per $1 lost it wins $2.6
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

159d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$11
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses9 / 6
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 16
History coverage159d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 11¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2 +$2 +112%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $14 +$1 +7%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $2 +$2 +105%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2 +$1 +57%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 +$1 +73%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3 +$2 +50%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $1 +$4 +365%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$2 +238%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Feb 01 $6 +$2 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 46¢ $1 8h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 8h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 8h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $14 16h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 40h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $2 40h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 43h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 43h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $2 3d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $3 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 5d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $1 5d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 11¢ $1 11d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? SELL Yes 31¢ $8 139d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? BUY Yes 22¢ $6 159d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.05 · official $0.05 (match) · 26 history records