Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T09:23:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
EB 0xeb63…fb38 politics 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 25L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$408per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 54% −$6
crypto 19% −$4
other 9% −$1
world 9% −$1
sports 9% −$2
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 4 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 22 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 25 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$856) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$1 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)25 / 25
History coverage92d
Avg bet$408
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 25 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 26 $65 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 26 $955 −$2 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 26 $924 $0 +0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 26 $893 −$2 -0%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2026 World Series? May 23 $50 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $35 $0 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 23 $22 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? May 21 $41 $0 -0%
Will Mary Fitzpatrick win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? May 21 $805 −$1 -0%
Will Gillian Sherratt win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? May 21 $862 $0 -0%
Will Sadegh Mahsouli be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $860 −$1 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 19 $56 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 19 $856 −$2 -0%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the Western Conference? May 19 $15 $0 -2%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 19 $792 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $861 −$1 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 18 $51 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $836 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in May? May 18 $822 −$1 -0%
Will Chicago White Sox win the 2026 American League Championship Serie Apr 01 $26 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 01 $75 $0 -0%
Will Claudia Sheinbaum be the next leader out before 2027? Apr 01 $25 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 26 $145 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 26 $30 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 26 $97 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $65 38m
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $952 48m
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $11 59m
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $904 1h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $25 1h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $29 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $17 1h
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $688 1h
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $204 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $34 2h
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $893 2h
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $50 34d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $34 34d
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $50 34d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $9 34d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $16 34d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $19 34d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $13 34d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $22 34d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? SELL No 95¢ $41 35d
Will Mary Fitzpatrick win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? SELL No 100¢ $804 35d
Will Mary Fitzpatrick win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? BUY No 100¢ $762 35d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? BUY No 95¢ $18 35d
Will Gillian Sherratt win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? SELL Yes $0 35d
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? BUY No 95¢ $23 35d
Will Gillian Sherratt win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? SELL No 100¢ $123 35d
Will Mary Fitzpatrick win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? BUY No 100¢ $12 35d
Will Sadegh Mahsouli be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $680 35d
Will Mary Fitzpatrick win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election? BUY No 100¢ $31 35d
Will Sadegh Mahsouli be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $179 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 81 history records