Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:13:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
EB 0xeb69…cfd1 sports 235 markets active 1h ago coverage 57d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,921 (-1%) realized −$1,785 · open −$136
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate52%121W / 112L
Whale WR59%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,146per market
Trades / day12.0pace
Fees−$2,845est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$864now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 57d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$28,181
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-27.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -48.8% -53.7% 22% 22% -72.2%
≤30d 98 -26.0% -33.1% 49% 34% -25.5%
≤90d 233 -19.6% -27.3% 52% 42% -20.5%
all 233 -19.6% -27.3% 52% 42% -20.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.0 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.3% 42% -20.5%
10% ← realistic here -34.2% 34% -28.1%
15% -40.6% 24% -35.0%
20% -46.4% 17% -41.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 59% (≥$1,372) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -12% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$427 vs −$712 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$864
Realized−$1,785
Unrealized−$136
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses121 / 112
Whale WR (big bets)59%
Est. fees paid−$2,845
Open positions2
Markets (closed)233 / 235
History coverage57d
Avg bet$1,146
Trades / day12.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 233 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs FURIA 81¢ 100¢ $700 $864 +$164 (+23%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner 9z 30¢ 0¢ $300 $0 −$300 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 86 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $470 −$459 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $112 −$110 -98%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 18 $1,431 −$1,410 -98%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $603 +$115 +19%
UFC Fight Night: Giga Chikadze vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Featherweight, P Jun 15 $1 $0 -3%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $1,005 −$607 -60%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $305 +$320 +105%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $1,779 −$1,750 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $36 −$35 -98%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $494 −$490 -99%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $1,817 −$900 -50%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $1,635 +$193 +12%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $1,567 +$2,077 +133%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $1,817 −$1,200 -66%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 07 $2,230 −$860 -39%
UFC Fight Night: Farés Ziam vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Prelims) Jun 07 $2,316 −$200 -9%
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Jun 07 $1,907 −$100 -5%
UFC Fight Night: Matt Schnell vs. Alessandro Costa (Catchweight, Preli Jun 06 $307 −$300 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Yuneisy Duben vs. Jeisla Chaves (Women's Flyweight, P Jun 06 $601 +$17 +3%
UFC Fight Night: Bruno Silva vs. Édgar Cháirez (Flyweight, Prelims) Jun 06 $1 −$1 -99%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $2,943 −$950 -32%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $1,063 +$404 +38%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $752 −$520 -69%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $1 −$1 -98%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $1 +$1 +113%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 04 $1,007 +$293 +29%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $2,501 +$22 +1%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $2,085 −$2,050 -98%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $1,964 +$745 +38%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $611 −$600 -98%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 04 $1 +$1 +82%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $891 −$833 -94%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Esports World Cup Western Jun 02 $83 −$81 -98%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner May 30 $1,006 +$258 +26%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner May 30 $810 −$800 -99%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner May 30 $1,502 +$82 +5%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner May 30 $3,280 −$3,230 -98%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs LGD Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $2 −$2 -97%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs GLYPH (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $1,183 +$101 +8%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $1 +$1 +73%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $2,787 −$2,000 -72%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs GLYPH (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $1,331 +$468 +35%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $601 +$30 +5%
Dota 2: Aurora vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $1,811 −$1 -0%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs OG (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $1,504 +$157 +10%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $1,826 −$272 -15%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $913 −$827 -91%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $1,521 −$400 -26%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $1,804 +$146 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 81¢ $704 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner SELL FURIA 100¢ $693 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 65¢ $455 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 30¢ $306 2h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 73¢ $1 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 26¢ $204 6h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 23¢ $40 6h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 19¢ $225 6h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 27¢ $56 6h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 25¢ $56 6h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 55¢ $253 9h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 63¢ $506 9h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Vici Gaming 100¢ $717 9h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 40¢ $336 9h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 40¢ $336 9h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 84¢ $603 10h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Ilia Topuria 35¢ $398 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 86¢ $1,004 3d
UFC Fight Night: Giga Chikadze vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Featherweight, P BUY Giga Chikadze 51¢ $1 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 48¢ $305 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Steve Garcia 48¢ $508 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Steve Garcia 45¢ $1,017 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Steve Garcia 43¢ $254 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $1 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 35¢ $36 4d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Yandex 72¢ $494 11d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Team Yandex 100¢ $973 11d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Yandex 92¢ $902 11d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 45¢ $915 11d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Yandex 100¢ $1,828 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $864.26 · official $864.26 (match) · 722 history records