Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:53:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
EB 0xeb6b…6266 weather 886 markets active 0h ago coverage 35d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 35d only
✗ bot/MM pace (94 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$418 (-2%) realized −$418 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate84%708W / 133L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day93.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$189now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$12
14 days+$20
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 67% +$115
politics 22% +$10
other 9% −$1
tech 1% +$1
world 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
sports 0% $0
culture 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (94 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 190 +0.4% -9.2% 95% 2% -9.3%
≤30d 679 -0.1% -9.6% 84% 1% -9.6%
≤90d 841 +1.1% -8.5% 84% 2% -9.0%
all 841 +1.1% -8.5% 84% 2% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover93.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.5% 2% -9.0%
10% ← realistic here -17.3% 2% -17.7%
15% -25.3% 1% -25.6%
20% -32.6% 1% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.73 per $1 lost it wins $2.73
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$189
Realized−$418
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses708 / 133
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions45
Markets (closed)841 / 886
History coverage35d ⚠
Avg bet$23
Trades / day93.8
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 45 History 841 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C or below on June 18? No 99¢ 99¢ $56 $56 +$0 (+0%)
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 96¢ 98¢ $19 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 19°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 28°C or higher on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 18°C or below on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or higher on June 18? No 99¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 18? No 99¢ 99¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+0%)
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 88¢ 95¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Will Tunisia win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 97¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 85¢ 88¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will the Democratic Republic of Congo win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 97¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Daniel Helldén be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? No 99¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 79¢ 80¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 87¢ 88¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will César Acuña win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Curaçao win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 97¢ 97¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on June 17? Jun 16 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C or higher on June 17? Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 29°C or higher on June Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C or below on June 17? Jun 16 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on June 17? Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C or below on June 17? Jun 16 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Noemi Basiletti Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $53 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C or below on June 18? Jun 16 $35 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C or below on June 17? Jun 16 $14 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 18? Jun 16 $35 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C or below on June 18? Jun 16 $35 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 16? Jun 16 $30 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $35 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C or below on June 17? Jun 15 $26 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 16? Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 16? Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 16? Jun 15 $51 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C or higher on June 16? Jun 15 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or higher on June 16? Jun 15 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 17? Jun 15 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C or higher on June 17? Jun 15 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 17? Jun 15 $15 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C or higher on June 17? Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 16? Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 15? Jun 15 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 15? Jun 15 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $225 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $20 $0 +0%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C or below on June 15? Jun 14 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $20 $0 +0%
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 14 $1 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 38°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $1 4m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 38°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $1 18m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C or below on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $3 27m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 38°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $12 31m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 38°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $1 36m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 38°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $1 38m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $20 52m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 38°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 38°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 38°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C or higher on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C or higher on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C or higher on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 29°C or higher on June SELL No 100¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 38°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 38°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 38°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 19°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 18°C or below on June 1 BUY No 100¢ $10 3h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 28°C or higher on June BUY No 100¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $10 3h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $10 3h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $10 3h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 28°C or higher on June BUY No 100¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 19°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C or below on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $0 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $188.69 · official $187.72 (match) · 3500 history records