Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T11:12:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EB 0xeb6c…7f4c other 24 markets active 2h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$123 (-44%) realized −$124 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate24%5W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$32
7 days−$74
14 days−$111
30 days−$111
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% −$63
other 44% −$56
sports 6% +$16
crypto 6% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-36.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -26.5% -33.5% 22% 22% -47.3%
≤30d 21 -30.1% -36.7% 24% 24% -55.0%
≤90d 21 -30.1% -36.7% 24% 24% -55.0%
all 21 -30.1% -36.7% 24% 24% -55.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.7% 24% -55.0%
10% -42.8% 24% -59.3%
15% -48.3% 24% -63.2%
20% -53.4% 19% -66.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 62% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -50% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -50% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -76% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$11 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized−$124
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses5 / 16
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)21 / 24
History coverage11d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Yes 14¢ 16¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+18%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 70¢ 64¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-9%)
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 19 $10 +$18 +183%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $5 +$5 +110%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$14 +134%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $58 −$48 -83%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$17 +339%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -99%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 −$3 -22%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 14 $12 −$1 -9%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -94%
Will anyone say "God" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? Jun 12 $16 −$15 -96%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL No 66¢ $28 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $10 1h
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 2h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes $3 13h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 47¢ $5 21h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 21h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 21h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $33 40h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $3 41h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 42h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 23¢ $10 43h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 2d
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $22 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 30¢ $11 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 3d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 3d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $4 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 3d
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? SELL Yes $9 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 35¢ $15 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 20¢ $11 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 4d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.67 · official $25.67 (match) · 41 history records