Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T11:02:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

EB 0xeb6e…be3c crypto 18 markets active 0h ago coverage 22d

TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$83 (+6%) realized +$74 · open +$9

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip

Net edge-14%after slip

Net WR44%break-even

Win rate62%10W / 6L

Drawdown42%max

Avg bet$83per market

Trades / day2.4pace

Kalshi-fit83%portable

Net worth$252now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$90

7 days+$96

14 days+$110

30 days+$110

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +44%

net ROI/market (all)-13.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	8	+4.1%	-5.9%	75%	62%	+0.9%
≤30d	16	-4.7%	-13.8%	62%	44%	-1.6%
≤90d	16	-4.7%	-13.8%	62%	44%	-1.6%
all	16	-4.7%	-13.8%	62%	44%	-1.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.4 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-13.8%	44%	-1.6%
10%	-22.0%	19%	-11.0%
15%	-29.6%	6%	-19.6%
20%	-36.5%	0%	-27.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 38% · top 2 59% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

30% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -5% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -13% → late +4% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$18 vs −$11 · ×1.6 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×2.66 per $1 lost it wins $2.66

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage

Net worth$252

Realized+$74

Unrealized+$9

Win rate (resolved)62%

Wins / losses10 / 6

Open positions2

Markets (closed)16 / 18

History coverage22d

Avg bet$83

Trades / day2.4

Drawdown42%

Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 16 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Yes	95¢	99¢	$201	$210	+$9 (+4%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?	No	87¢	86¢	$42	$42	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Jun 21	$26	+$7	+25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET	Jun 21	$156	+$67	+42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	Jun 21	$61	−$23	-37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Jun 21	$36	−$24	-66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	Jun 21	$20	+$6	+32%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan?	Jun 21	$202	+$38	+19%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay?	Jun 20	$131	+$19	+14%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Jun 16	$195	+$6	+3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Jun 13	$51	+$10	+19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Jun 13	$103	+$4	+4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Jun 13	$26	−$8	-30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET	Jun 13	$5	−$5	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Jun 12	$26	$0	-1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	Jun 12	$26	−$7	-26%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Jun 12	$48	+$8	+17%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T?	Jun 12	$136	+$11	+8%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?	BUY No	87¢	$42	2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	SELL Up	75¢	$32	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	BUY Up	57¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET	SELL Up	91¢	$66	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET	SELL Up	73¢	$157	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET	BUY Up	48¢	$3	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET	BUY Up	48¢	$14	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET	BUY Up	52¢	$10	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET	BUY Up	52¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET	BUY Up	52¢	$103	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	BUY Up	84¢	$25	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	SELL Up	15¢	$9	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	BUY Up	51¢	$10	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	BUY Up	58¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	SELL Up	22¢	$12	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	BUY Up	56¢	$10	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	BUY Up	61¢	$26	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	BUY Up	88¢	$10	4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	BUY Up	65¢	$10	4h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan?	BUY No	82¢	$8	6h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan?	BUY No	84¢	$194	6h
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay?	BUY No	87¢	$131	31h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June	BUY Yes	95¢	$201	5d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	SELL Yes	92¢	$201	5d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	BUY Yes	88¢	$16	7d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	BUY Yes	88¢	$22	7d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	BUY Yes	88¢	$22	7d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	BUY Yes	88¢	$22	7d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	BUY Yes	88¢	$22	7d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	BUY Yes	88¢	$22	7d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $251.75 · official $251.75 (match) · 60 history records