Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T09:35:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

EB
0xeb6f…25f0
sports · 71 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$5,493 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$8,366 · open +$4,600
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$36,674
Realized−$8,366
Unrealized+$4,600
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses38 / 69
Whale WR (big bets)63%
Est. fees paid−$724
Open positions17
Markets (closed)107 / 71
Avg bet$4,561
Trades / day42.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%
Chart Positions 17 History 107 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$29,467
7 days−$25,790
14 days−$25,573
30 days−$15,124
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 85¢ 96¢ $7,673 $8,660 +$986 (+13%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 94¢ 97¢ $6,102 $6,274 +$172 (+3%)
Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026? No 43¢ 84¢ $3,050 $5,974 +$2,923 (+96%)
US recession by end of 2026? No 74¢ 82¢ $4,758 $5,333 +$575 (+12%)
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? No 51¢ 44¢ $3,364 $2,948 −$416 (-12%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $2,440 $2,481 +$41 (+2%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House Yes 35¢ 34¢ $1,400 $1,380 −$20 (-1%)
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No 82¢ 88¢ $920 $982 +$62 (+7%)
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record? Yes 51¢ 62¢ $521 $639 +$118 (+23%)
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Yes 67¢ 75¢ $542 $610 +$68 (+12%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 58¢ 58¢ $576 $580 +$4 (+1%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 69¢ 77¢ $427 $475 +$48 (+11%)
Will Barry Moore be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? No 18¢ 22¢ $152 $190 +$38 (+25%)
Will the Republicans win the Montana Senate race in 2026? Yes 76¢ 74¢ $102 $100 −$2 (-2%)
Will Mike Collins be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia? Yes 83¢ 93¢ $34 $38 +$4 (+12%)
Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027? No 87¢ 88¢ $6 $7 +$0 (+2%)
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 87¢ 88¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Cubs vs. Brewers Cubs 45¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Josh Giddey win the 2025–2026 NBA Most Improved Player? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Trey Murphy III win the 2025–2026 NBA Most Improved Player? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Steven Fulop win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025 Yes 0¢ 0¢ $44 $0 −$44 (-100%)
Will Matas Buzelis win the 2025–2026 NBA Most Improved Player? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
Will Ecuador win on 2025-10-10? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the Kansas City Chiefs make the playoffs? Yes 72¢ 0¢ $268 $0 −$268 (-100%)
Packers vs. Bears Packers 51¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cubs vs. Brewers Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Josh Giddey win the 2025–2026 NBA Most Improved Player? Jun 12 $3 −$34 -1185%
Will Trey Murphy III win the 2025–2026 NBA Most Improved Player? Jun 12 $10 −$52 -514%
Will Steven Fulop win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025 Jun 12 $44 −$44 -100%
Will Matas Buzelis win the 2025–2026 NBA Most Improved Player? Jun 12 $21 −$26 -122%
Will Ecuador win on 2025-10-10? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs make the playoffs? Jun 12 $268 −$268 -100%
Packers vs. Bears Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Panthers vs. Jets Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
UCLA vs. Indiana Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Nuggets vs. Raptors Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bucks vs. Heat Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025 Jun 12 $3,025 −$25,048 -828%
SMU Mustangs vs. Clemson Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Bills vs. Falcons Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
NFL Sunday Week 9: Will an underdog win? Jun 12 $150 −$150 -100%
Magic vs. Wizards Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Eagles vs. Chiefs Jun 12 $48 −$48 -100%
Syracuse vs. Georgia Tech Jun 12 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Keyonte George win the 2025–2026 NBA Most Improved Player? Jun 12 $3 −$49 -1479%
Chiefs vs. Jaguars Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Kyle Filipowski win the 2025–2026 NBA Most Improved Player? Jun 12 $32 −$53 -165%
Jets vs. Bengals Jun 12 $73 −$73 -100%
Will Jay Huff win the 2025–2026 NBA Most Improved Player? Jun 12 $29 −$53 -180%
Will Jonathan Kuminga win the 2025–2026 NBA Most Improved Player? Jun 12 $13 −$52 -402%
Will Chet Holmgren win the 2025–2026 NBA Most Improved Player? Jun 12 $3 −$52 -1784%
Bills vs. Jaguars Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Cowboys vs. Broncos Jun 12 $39 −$39 -100%
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between 1% and 0%? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the July 2025 unemployment rate be 4.0%? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Carlton Carrington win the 2025–2026 NBA Most Improved Player? Jun 12 $12 −$52 -419%
Will Kel'el Ware win the 2025–2026 NBA Most Improved Player? Jun 12 $48 −$54 -113%
Will Scoot Henderson win the 2025–2026 NBA Most Improved Player? Jun 12 $10 −$52 -514%
Will Gradey Dick win the 2025–2026 NBA Most Improved Player? Jun 12 $10 −$52 -524%
Will the July 2025 unemployment rate be 4.1%? Jun 12 $23 −$23 -100%
Dodgers vs. Phillies Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Jaden Ivey win the 2025–2026 NBA Most Improved Player? Jun 12 $10 −$52 -524%
Louisville vs. Miami Jun 12 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Jay Jones win the 2025 Virginia Attorney General election? Jun 12 $570 −$570 -100%
Buccaneers vs. Lions Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the AFC South? Jun 12 $415 −$202 -49%
Oklahoma vs. South Carolina Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Packers vs. Browns Jun 12 $80 −$80 -100%
Will no one dissent September Fed decision? Jun 12 $190 −$190 -100%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the AFC South? Jun 12 $629 −$629 -100%
Will Brandon Miller win the 2025–2026 NBA Most Improved Player? Jun 12 $3 −$52 -1784%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by August 31? Jun 12 $14 +$25 +181%
Will Josh Gottheimer win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025 Jun 12 $44 −$44 -100%
Commanders vs. Cowboys Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Fresno State vs. Colorado State Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 31% +$9,788
politics 30% +$3,241
economics 15% +$4,457
crypto 14% +$135
other 5% +$2,386
world 4% +$4,336
weather 0% +$133
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $14 1h
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 5h
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 6h
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 8h
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 8h
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 8h
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 9h
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 9h
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 9h
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 10h
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 10h
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 10h
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 11h
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 12h
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 12h
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 13h
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 13h
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 13h
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 14h
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 14h
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 15h
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 15h
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 16h
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 17h
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 19h
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 19h
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 19h
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-4.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -80.5% -82.3% 12% 5% -18.4%
≤30d 62 -54.8% -59.1% 29% 8% -6.3%
≤90d 107 +5.4% -4.6% 36% 17% -4.6%
all 107 +5.4% -4.6% 36% 17% -4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover42.3 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.6% 17% -4.6%
10% -13.8% 14% -13.7%
15% ← realistic here -22.1% 11% -22.1%
20% -29.7% 7% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36,674.40 · official $36,674.80 (match) · 3500 history records