Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:45:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EB 0xeb76…7ffe sports 2148 markets active 1h ago coverage 86d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 86d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,374 (-6%) realized −$3,368 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate43%998W / 1342L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day28.0pace
Fees−$594est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$317now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3,803
7 days−$3,238
14 days−$1,973
30 days+$737
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% +$2,611
other 15% +$191
world 0% −$79
finance 0% −$19
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-18.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 401 -69.1% -72.0% 13% 13% -56.1%
≤30d 754 -20.5% -28.1% 38% 38% -5.5%
≤90d 2340 -10.1% -18.7% 43% 42% -12.8%
all 2340 -10.1% -18.7% 43% 42% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.7% 42% -12.8%
10% ← realistic here -26.5% 41% -21.2%
15% -33.6% 40% -28.8%
20% -40.1% 38% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$19 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$317
Realized−$3,368
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses998 / 1342
Est. fees paid−$594
Open positions12
Markets (closed)2340 / 2148
History coverage86d ⚠
Avg bet$24
Trades / day28.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 2340 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt Thiago Seyboth Wild 61¢ 58¢ $66 $63 −$3 (-5%)
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 163.5 Over 48¢ 46¢ $49 $48 −$2 (-3%)
KBO: NC Dinos vs. KT Wiz NC Dinos 42¢ 48¢ $38 $44 +$5 (+14%)
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. KT Wiz KT Wiz 53¢ 48¢ $39 $35 −$4 (-10%)
Brescia: Miriam Bulgaru vs Ane Mintegi Del Olmo Miriam Bulgaru 33¢ 30¢ $35 $31 −$4 (-11%)
Spread: PortlandFire (-2.5) PortlandFire 53¢ 52¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-1%)
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Taylah Preston Taylah Preston 40¢ 36¢ $12 $11 −$1 (-11%)
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B 4ikibamboni 60¢ 97¢ $4 $7 +$3 (+61%)
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International China Closed Qualifier Playoffs Team Resilience 56¢ 60¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+6%)
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. SSG Landers SSG Landers 39¢ 50¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+28%)
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers LG Twins 51¢ 50¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. Hanwha Eagles Hanwha Eagles 52¢ 29¢ $3 $1 −$1 (-45%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 484 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: St. Bonaventure Bonnies (-5.5) Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Delray Beach Open: Rinky Hijikata vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Austin: Kaja Juvan vs McCartney Kessler Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Sønderjyske Fodbold vs. Odense BK: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5) Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Geoff Neal vs. Uros Medic (Welterweight, Prelims) Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Maryland Terrapins vs. Northwestern Wildcats Jun 17 $35 −$35 -100%
St. Francis (PA) Red Flash vs. New Haven Chargers: O/U 140.5 Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Spread: Atlético San Luis (-1.5) Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 26, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 25, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Oxford United FC vs. Charlton Athletic FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Hampton Pirates vs. Stony Brook Seawolves Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: AFC Bournemouth (-1.5) Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Hersonissos 2: Henry Bernet vs Stefan Dostanic Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
XRP Up or Down - February 26, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will VfL Wolfsburg vs. FC Augsburg end in a draw? Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
BYU Cougars vs. Cincinnati Bearcats Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Magic vs. Clippers: O/U 215.5 Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Avalanche vs. Jets Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 25, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
George Washington Revolutionaries vs. VCU Rams Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Monmouth Hawks vs. Charleston Cougars: O/U 149.5 Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 27, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers vs. Siena Saints Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Will FC Midtjylland win on 2026-03-22? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Randers FC vs. FC Fredericia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 26, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Central Coast Mariners FC vs. Adelaide United FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Stars vs. Canucks: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Hersonissos 2: Gabriele Piraino vs Kimmer Coppejans Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 17 $76 −$76 -100%
Will RKS Raków Częstochowa vs. ACF Fiorentina end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Kalieva vs. Mertens: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Newcastle United FC vs. Sunderland AFC: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships: Laura Siegemund vs Daria Kasatki Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Fulham FC vs. Southampton FC: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Leicester City FC win on 2026-02-21? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Miami Open: Taylor Townsend vs Jasmine Paolini Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Athletic Club end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
BNP Paribas Open: Emma Raducanu vs Anastasia Zakharova Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Jazz vs. Grizzlies Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Denver Pioneers vs. North Dakota Fighting Hawks: O/U 160.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Rockets (-16.5) Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
South Carolina State Bulldogs vs. North Carolina Central Eagles: O/U 1 Jun 17 $64 −$64 -100%
VfL Bochum vs. 1. FC Kaiserslautern: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Mexican Open: Damir Dzumhur vs Gael Monfils Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Southern Jaguars vs. Texas Southern Tigers Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
UC Sampdoria vs. SSC Bari: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: PortlandFire (-2.5) BUY PortlandFire 53¢ $32 1h
Brescia: Miriam Bulgaru vs Ane Mintegi Del Olmo BUY Miriam Bulgaru 33¢ $36 1h
Nottingham Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Tatjana Maria BUY Dayana Yastremska 47¢ $2 2h
Nottingham Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Tatjana Maria BUY Dayana Yastremska 47¢ $2 2h
Nottingham Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Tatjana Maria BUY Dayana Yastremska 47¢ $5 2h
Nottingham Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Tatjana Maria BUY Dayana Yastremska 47¢ $2 2h
Nottingham Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Tatjana Maria BUY Dayana Yastremska 47¢ $2 2h
Nottingham Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Tatjana Maria BUY Dayana Yastremska 47¢ $1 2h
Nottingham Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Tatjana Maria BUY Dayana Yastremska 47¢ $1 2h
Nottingham Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Tatjana Maria BUY Dayana Yastremska 47¢ $14 2h
Nottingham Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Tatjana Maria BUY Dayana Yastremska 47¢ $4 2h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta BUY SPARTA 45¢ $4 3h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta BUY SPARTA 53¢ $2 4h
Figueira Da Foz: Viktoria Hruncakova vs Yeon-Woo Ku BUY Yeon-Woo Ku 48¢ $55 6h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 163.5 BUY Over 48¢ $50 6h
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Alexis Galarneau BUY Oliver Crawford 41¢ $27 7h
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt BUY Thiago Seyboth Wild 61¢ $67 8h
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos BUY NC Dinos 51¢ $16 8h
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Taylah Preston BUY Taylah Preston 40¢ $12 8h
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears BUY Doosan Bears 40¢ $42 9h
Royan: Daniel Jade vs Raphael Perot BUY Raphael Perot 49¢ $20 13h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C BUY Team Resilience 56¢ $3 14h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY TDK 45¢ $11 17h
Parma: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Stefano Travaglia BUY Roberto Carballes Baena 59¢ $65 23h
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Luca Van Assche BUY Luca Van Assche 62¢ $72 23h
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Luca Van Assche BUY Luca Van Assche 62¢ $72 24h
Nottingham 2: Remy Bertola vs Yibing Wu BUY Remy Bertola 21¢ $25 25h
Rainbow Six Siege: Geekay Esports vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA Leag BUY Geekay Esports 59¢ $4 25h
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin BUY Viktorija Golubic 55¢ $62 27h
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin BUY Viktorija Golubic 55¢ $9 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $317.14 · official $317.14 (match) · 3500 history records