Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T09:42:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
EB 0xeb7a…6786 other 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 178d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$76 (-6%) realized −$79 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate88%14W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$414now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$230
30 days−$62
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$227
sports 36% +$150
crypto 3% $0
world 2% $0
tech 2% +$1
economics 1% $0
politics 1% $0
weather 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +7.0% -3.2% 50% 50% -24.3%
≤90d 12 +1.7% -8.0% 83% 17% -19.1%
all 16 +1.7% -8.0% 88% 12% -18.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 12% -18.3%
10% -16.8% 12% -26.1%
15% -24.8% 12% -33.3%
20% -32.2% 12% -39.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$194 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

178d coverage
Net worth$414
Realized−$79
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses14 / 2
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)16 / 17
History coverage178d
Avg bet$73
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $411 $414 +$3 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $234 −$230 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $148 +$168 +114%
Canadiens vs. Sabres May 19 $137 +$139 +101%
Will January 2026 be the 2nd hottest on record? May 18 $7 $0 +0%
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 5, 2026? May 18 $9 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 18 $9 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? May 18 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 39°F or below on March 5? May 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026? May 18 $11 $0 +1%
Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31? May 18 $11 $0 +1%
Nothing Ever Happens: Jerome Powell Edition May 18 $12 $0 +1%
Hornets vs. Magic Apr 17 $159 −$157 -99%
Will the price of XRP be less than $1.60 on January 11? Feb 03 $12 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Feb 03 $12 +$1 +5%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of January? Feb 03 $16 $0 +1%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in December? Jan 09 $21 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 61¢ $415 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 44¢ $234 10d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $148 21d
Canadiens vs. Sabres BUY Canadiens 49¢ $137 40d
Hornets vs. Magic BUY Hornets 60¢ $159 71d
Nothing Ever Happens: Jerome Powell Edition BUY Yes 99¢ $12 94d
Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31? BUY No 99¢ $11 100d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? BUY No 98¢ $10 106d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 39°F or below on March 5? BUY No 100¢ $10 115d
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $11 119d
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $9 123d
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 5, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $9 140d
Will January 2026 be the 2nd hottest on record? BUY No 100¢ $7 149d
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on BUY Yes 95¢ $12 155d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of January? BUY No 99¢ $16 165d
Will the price of XRP be less than $1.60 on January 11? BUY No 100¢ $12 169d
Will XRP reach $3.00 in December? BUY No 100¢ $21 178d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $413.89 · official $413.89 (match) · 31 history records