Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:42:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
EB 0xeb7d…a62b politics 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 245d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate8%1W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$139per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$402now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 99% −$4
sports 1% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -7.1% -16.0% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 11 -7.1% -16.0% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 11 -7.1% -16.0% 0% 0% -9.8%
all 13 -6.0% -15.0% 8% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 0% -9.8%
10% -23.1% 0% -18.4%
15% -30.5% 0% -26.3%
20% -37.3% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

245d coverage
Net worth$402
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses1 / 12
Open positions3
Markets (closed)13 / 16
History coverage245d
Avg bet$139
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $209 $208 −$0 (-0%)
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $179 $179 −$0 (-0%)
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? No 96¢ 97¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $1 $0 -21%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $209 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $169 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $2 $0 -18%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $169 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $210 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $369 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $219 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $1 $0 -19%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $398 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $2 $0 -19%
Trump abolishes the Federal Income Tax in 2025? Dec 17 $19 $0 +0%
Will Rudy Giuliani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 21 $49 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $209 1h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $179 2h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $208 2h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $209 4h
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $169 4h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 5h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 7h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 9h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $169 10h
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $169 10h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $208 11h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $169 12h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $169 13h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $209 13h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $218 14h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $219 16h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $169 19h
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 22h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $208 23h
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 25h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $209 26h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 28h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $198 31h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 34h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $189 34h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 37h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $199 37h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 37h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $402.19 · official $402.19 (match) · 39 history records