Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T12:40:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
EB 0xeb83…e5a6 sports 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$137 (+14%) realized +$137 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate63%19W / 11L
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days−$58
14 days+$40
30 days+$125
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$156
other 3% −$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -72.3% -75.0% 25% 25% -63.7%
≤30d 30 +1.7% -8.0% 63% 60% +3.8%
≤90d 30 +1.7% -8.0% 63% 60% +3.8%
all 30 +1.7% -8.0% 63% 60% +3.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 60% +3.8%
10% -16.8% 50% -6.1%
15% -24.8% 37% -15.2%
20% -32.2% 27% -23.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$18 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.62 per $1 lost it wins $1.62
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized+$137
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses19 / 11
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 31
History coverage22d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs FURIA 41¢ 40¢ $39 $38 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs VP.Prodigy - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $35 +$4 +11%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 14 $32 −$32 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $10 +$11 +112%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $20 +$15 +76%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $15 −$6 -38%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $10 +$14 +136%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $73 +$20 +27%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $52 +$23 +44%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $35 +$17 +49%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $10 +$3 +30%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $37 −$36 -99%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $34 +$2 +5%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $15 +$2 +14%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $22 −$8 -34%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $10 −$10 -99%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $39 −$23 -60%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $5 −$5 -90%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $56 +$25 +45%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $53 +$65 +122%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $42 +$10 +25%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $20 −$20 -98%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 04 $86 +$28 +32%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $55 +$31 +57%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $31 −$30 -98%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $26 +$18 +69%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $18 +$19 +104%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $17 +$11 +64%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner May 30 $31 +$6 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA 41¢ $40 1h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs VP.Prodigy - Game 2 Winner SELL Team Spirit 100¢ $39 2h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs VP.Prodigy - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Spirit 90¢ $35 3h
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 50¢ $32 6d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY Monte 44¢ $15 6d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner SELL TheMongolz 3¢ $0 6d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 47¢ $15 7d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner SELL 9z 42¢ $22 7d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 19¢ $10 7d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner SELL FURIA 100¢ $36 7d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 56¢ $20 7d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL PARIVISION 25¢ $0 7d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL PARIVISION 25¢ $9 7d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 39¢ $15 7d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner SELL TheMongolz 96¢ $24 8d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 40¢ $10 8d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner SELL LGD Gaming 93¢ $93 13d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 73¢ $66 13d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 73¢ $7 13d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Team Yandex 92¢ $36 13d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Team Yandex 92¢ $39 13d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Yandex 63¢ $52 13d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Yandex 95¢ $52 13d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Yandex 63¢ $35 13d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 SELL BIG 68¢ $13 13d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY BIG 51¢ $10 13d
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Aurora 56¢ $37 14d
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL Aurora 90¢ $36 14d
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Aurora 85¢ $34 14d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs SELL Team Yandex 65¢ $17 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.39 · official $38.39 (match) · 78 history records