Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T14:18:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5

score

EB 0xeb86…1cec crypto 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover

Total PnL +$4 (+2%) realized +$4 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +64% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +26% what you keep after slip

Net edge+26%after slip

Net WR36%break-even

Win rate45%5W / 6L

Drawdown95%max

Avg bet$22per market

Trades / day30.0pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +36%

net ROI/market (all)+48.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	11	+63.9%	+48.3%	45%	36%	-7.4%
≤30d	11	+63.9%	+48.3%	45%	36%	-7.4%
≤90d	11	+63.9%	+48.3%	45%	36%	-7.4%
all	11	+63.9%	+48.3%	45%	36%	-7.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover30.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	+48.3%	36%	-7.4%
10% ← realistic here	+34.1%	36%	-16.2%
15%	+21.1%	36%	-24.3%
20%	+9.2%	27%	-31.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 56% · top 2 80% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

20% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +64% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$20 vs −$16 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×1.04 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$4

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)45%

Wins / losses5 / 6

Open positions0

Markets (closed)11 / 11

History coverage1d

Avg bet$22

Trades / day30.0

Drawdown95%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 11 Trades

no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Jun 23	$26	−$26	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Jun 23	$22	$0	+1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Jun 23	$21	−$20	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Jun 23	$31	−$20	-64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Jun 23	$32	−$10	-32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Jun 23	$26	−$5	-19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Jun 23	$21	+$24	+114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Jun 23	$5	+$57	+1074%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	Jun 23	$21	+$10	+46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Jun 23	$16	−$16	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	Jun 23	$15	+$10	+67%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	SELL Up	26¢	$6	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	BUY Up	42¢	$10	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	SELL Down	65¢	$16	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	BUY Down	43¢	$11	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	BUY Up	11¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	BUY Up	47¢	$21	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	BUY Up	40¢	$21	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	BUY Down	29¢	$21	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	SELL Up	64¢	$12	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	BUY Up	52¢	$10	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	SELL Down	78¢	$63	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	BUY Up	24¢	$11	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	SELL Down	42¢	$7	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	BUY Down	20¢	$21	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	BUY Up	25¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	SELL Down	79¢	$8	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	BUY Down	48¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	SELL Down	40¢	$41	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	BUY Down	14¢	$16	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	SELL Up	73¢	$45	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	BUY Up	32¢	$21	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$8	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	BUY Down	65¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	SELL Up	40¢	$23	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	BUY Up	25¢	$16	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	BUY Up	11¢	$16	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$26	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	BUY Up	73¢	$5	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET	BUY Up	52¢	$10	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	BUY Down	8¢	$5	2h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 33 history records