Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T09:26:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
EB 0xeb87…eb45 sports 111 markets active 2h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,445 (-8%) realized −$1,446 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate35%36W / 67L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$168per market
Trades / day48.1pace
Fees−$323est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$63now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,223
7 days−$2,069
14 days−$1,238
30 days−$1,238
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% +$179
other 20% −$1,416
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 66 +6.7% -3.5% 38% 30% -26.9%
≤30d 103 -1.0% -10.4% 35% 27% -16.1%
≤90d 103 -1.0% -10.4% 35% 27% -16.1%
all 103 -1.0% -10.4% 35% 27% -16.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover48.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.4% 27% -16.1%
10% ← realistic here -19.0% 26% -24.1%
15% -26.8% 25% -31.5%
20% -34.0% 23% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -16% → late +14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$172 vs −$116 · ×1.48 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$63
Realized−$1,446
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses36 / 67
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$323
Open positions1
Markets (closed)103 / 111
History coverage9d
Avg bet$168
Trades / day48.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 103 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $62 $63 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 49 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 26 $23 +$40 +172%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 26 $572 +$176 +31%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 26 $192 −$192 -100%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Jun 26 $150 −$150 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 26 $168 −$168 -100%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $343 −$343 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 26 $210 −$210 -100%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $174 −$113 -65%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $112 −$112 -100%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 26 $420 −$420 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 26 $429 −$429 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C Jun 25 $288 −$287 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner Jun 25 $14 −$14 -98%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 25 $102 −$100 -98%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 25 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 25 $146 +$365 +250%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos Jun 24 $153 +$203 +132%
Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 2? Jun 24 $125 −$125 -100%
Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 2? Jun 24 $381 −$120 -32%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle - Game 2 Winner Jun 24 $179 −$14 -8%
Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2? Jun 24 $311 −$311 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $507 −$348 -68%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Ghana? Jun 23 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $21 −$20 -97%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $520 +$534 +103%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $182 +$155 +85%
Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2? Jun 23 $1 +$1 +89%
Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2? Jun 23 $638 −$258 -40%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 4 Winner Jun 23 $107 −$15 -14%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 3 Winner Jun 23 $143 +$7 +4%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Team Bald - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $180 $0 -0%
Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 4? Jun 23 $15 −$7 -45%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2? Jun 23 $164 −$164 -100%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $52 +$50 +97%
Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2? Jun 22 $125 +$133 +107%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Iraq? Jun 22 $21 −$21 -97%
Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2? Jun 22 $154 +$172 +112%
Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 2? Jun 22 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? AND Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verd Jun 22 $17 +$307 +1758%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $149 −$147 -99%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $229 −$225 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $376 +$60 +16%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs 100 Thieves - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $114 +$145 +127%
Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2? Jun 21 $185 −$185 -100%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 21 $45 −$1 -2%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $73 $0 +0%
Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 2? Jun 21 $16 −$16 -100%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $486 +$13 +3%
Dota 2: Enjoy vs Team Bald - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $101 +$2 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 48¢ $63 1h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 36¢ $23 19h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C BUY Nigma Galaxy 33¢ $12 43h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) AND Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 AND BUY 7¢ $1 43h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C BUY Nigma Galaxy 54¢ $275 44h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Spirit 20¢ $4 45h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Spirit 39¢ $10 45h
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $102 2d
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $102 2d
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? AND Will South Africa vs. Korea BUY 9¢ $51 2d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 28¢ $146 2d
Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 2? BUY Over 48¢ $125 2d
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos BUY L1ga Team 26¢ $32 2d
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos BUY L1ga Team 26¢ $35 2d
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos SELL 4ikibamboni 37¢ $72 2d
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos SELL 4ikibamboni 37¢ $24 2d
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos BUY 4ikibamboni 33¢ $86 2d
Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 2? SELL Over 0¢ $0 2d
Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 2? BUY Under 55¢ $145 2d
Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 2? BUY Over 45¢ $17 2d
Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 2? BUY Over 45¢ $13 2d
Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 2? BUY Over 45¢ $81 2d
Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 2? BUY Over 48¢ $120 2d
Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 2? BUY Over 48¢ $5 2d
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle - Game 2 Winner SELL Inner Circle 32¢ $162 3d
Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2? BUY Over 48¢ $38 3d
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle - Game 2 Winner BUY Inner Circle 34¢ $86 3d
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle - Game 2 Winner BUY Inner Circle 34¢ $3 3d
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle - Game 2 Winner BUY Inner Circle 35¢ $86 3d
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle - Game 2 Winner BUY Inner Circle 35¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.67 · official $62.67 (match) · 501 history records