Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:10:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
EB 0xeb89…719d sports 81 markets active 1h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$254 (+11%) realized +$263 · open −$9
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate54%40W / 34L
Drawdown73%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$141now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$35
7 days+$35
14 days+$35
30 days+$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 43% −$13
world 31% +$299
other 12% −$52
crypto 7% +$40
politics 3% +$5
tech 2% −$40
economics 1% +$9
finance 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +75.8% +59.0% 100% 100% +53.8%
≤30d 3 +75.8% +59.0% 100% 100% +53.8%
≤90d 74 -4.2% -13.3% 54% 47% +1.2%
all 74 -4.2% -13.3% 54% 47% +1.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 47% +1.2%
10% -21.6% 39% -8.5%
15% -29.2% 32% -17.3%
20% -36.1% 26% -25.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 47% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$17 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.43 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$141
Realized+$263
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses40 / 34
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions7
Markets (closed)74 / 81
History coverage86d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown73%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 74 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 55¢ 55¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 19¢ 20¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+8%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 63¢ 64¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 12¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-19? Jun 17 $10 +$11 +105%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? Jun 17 $20 +$11 +54%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 17 $20 +$14 +68%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-24? May 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $120 +$4 +3%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 19 $20 +$8 +42%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 16 $30 −$30 -99%
Trump approval Up or Down this week? Apr 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t Apr 16 $30 +$15 +52%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? Apr 16 $399 +$351 +88%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? Apr 15 $10 −$8 -84%
Ethereum flipped in 2026? Apr 15 $10 −$2 -24%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $10 −$1 -6%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $10 −$1 -7%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 15 $10 $0 +4%
Will Gold have the best performance in 2026? Apr 15 $10 +$1 +7%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $10 +$1 +13%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? Apr 15 $10 $0 -0%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 15 $10 +$3 +30%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? Apr 15 $20 −$2 -11%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 15 $20 −$2 -8%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 15 $20 +$1 +5%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Apr 15 $20 +$3 +16%
Will the Boston Celtics win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Apr 15 $30 −$2 -5%
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 15 $30 +$3 +10%
Will Arsenal reach the UEFA Champions League final? Apr 15 $40 +$7 +18%
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? Apr 08 $10 +$4 +43%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 08 $60 +$37 +61%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 08 $120 −$90 -75%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $10 +$14 +140%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 07 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 07 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 06 $30 +$9 +30%
Wizards vs. Nets Apr 06 $20 +$13 +65%
Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 05 $10 +$24 +243%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 05 $30 +$10 +33%
UFC Fight Night: Virna Jandiroba vs. Tabatha Ricci (Women's Strawweigh Apr 05 $20 +$16 +79%
UFC Fight Night: Renato Moicano vs. Chris Duncan (Lightweight, Main Ca Apr 03 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap Apr 02 $20 −$20 -100%
Pistons vs. Thunder Apr 02 $20 +$3 +15%
Will the U.S. invade Iran by March 31? Apr 02 $20 +$3 +15%
Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies Mar 30 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March? Mar 30 $20 +$41 +204%
Purdue Boilermakers vs. Arizona Wildcats Mar 29 $30 +$12 +40%
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Iowa Hawkeyes Mar 29 $53 +$19 +36%
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Iowa State Cyclones Mar 27 $50 −$50 -100%
Michigan State Spartans vs. Connecticut Huskies Mar 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 55¢ $30 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 1h
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 30d
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 30d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 30d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 59¢ $20 30d
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? BUY No 65¢ $20 30d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 46¢ $31 59d
Rockets vs. Lakers BUY Rockets 68¢ $10 62d
Trump approval Up or Down this week? BUY Down 47¢ $10 62d
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets BUY Nuggets 70¢ $20 62d
Rockets vs. Lakers BUY Rockets 68¢ $20 62d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 44¢ $30 62d
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? BUY No 52¢ $9 62d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? SELL Yes 13¢ $2 62d
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? BUY No 51¢ $150 62d
Ethereum flipped in 2026? SELL Yes 40¢ $8 62d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 16¢ $9 62d
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? SELL Yes 36¢ $9 62d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 27¢ $10 62d
Will Gold have the best performance in 2026? SELL Yes 58¢ $11 62d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 27¢ $11 62d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $10 62d
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 30¢ $13 62d
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? SELL Yes 59¢ $18 62d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 35¢ $18 62d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $141.22 · official $141.22 (match) · 178 history records