Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:45:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

EB 0xeb8b…f18b crypto 21 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ bot/MM pace (61 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$65 (+13%) realized +$65 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip

Net edge-21%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate38%8W / 13L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$25per market

Trades / day61.0pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

uncopyable — bot pace (61 trades/day)

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)-7.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	21	+2.7%	-7.1%	38%	33%	-27.7%
≤30d	21	+2.7%	-7.1%	38%	33%	-27.7%
≤90d	21	+2.7%	-7.1%	38%	33%	-27.7%
all	21	+2.7%	-7.1%	38%	33%	-27.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover61.0 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-7.1%	33%	-27.7%
10% ← realistic here	-16.0%	29%	-34.6%
15%	-24.1%	24%	-40.9%
20%	-31.6%	24%	-46.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 57% · top 2 78% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

12% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +3% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +20% → late -13% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$12 vs −$14 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.54 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$65

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)38%

Wins / losses8 / 13

Open positions0

Markets (closed)21 / 21

History coverage1d

Avg bet$25

Trades / day61.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 21 Trades

no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	Jun 26	$16	−$10	-64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET	Jun 26	$5	−$1	-15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET	Jun 26	$20	+$3	+17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET	Jun 26	$5	−$5	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET	Jun 26	$5	$0	+8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET	Jun 26	$20	−$5	-25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	Jun 26	$52	−$27	-52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET	Jun 26	$27	−$27	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	Jun 26	$63	−$20	-31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET	Jun 26	$83	−$30	-36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	Jun 26	$5	+$21	+393%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET	Jun 26	$83	−$13	-15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET	Jun 26	$62	−$30	-48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Jun 26	$4	$0	-8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	Jun 26	$32	+$56	+177%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	Jun 26	$5	+$6	+116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	Jun 25	$11	−$10	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET	Jun 25	$5	+$2	+30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET	Jun 25	$5	+$4	+74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Jun 25	$5	−$5	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET	Jun 25	$5	+$7	+127%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	BUY Down	1¢	$5	26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	BUY Down	10¢	$5	28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	SELL Up	88¢	$6	29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	BUY Up	76¢	$5	29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET	SELL Up	60¢	$4	32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET	BUY Up	67¢	$5	35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$5	35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET	BUY Up	96¢	$5	36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET	SELL Up	89¢	$5	37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET	BUY Up	92¢	$5	37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET	SELL Down	54¢	$14	38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET	BUY Down	36¢	$5	39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET	BUY Down	39¢	$5	39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET	BUY Up	7¢	$5	42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$5	45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET	BUY Up	91¢	$5	49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$16	50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET	BUY Up	93¢	$5	52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET	BUY Up	93¢	$5	52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET	BUY Up	92¢	$5	52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET	BUY Down	56¢	$5	55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	BUY Down	47¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	SELL Down	59¢	$25	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	BUY Down	58¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET	BUY Down	4¢	$27	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	BUY Up	13¢	$27	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	BUY Up	39¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	BUY Down	58¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET	BUY Up	50¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET	SELL Down	99¢	$69	1h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 69 history records