Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:09:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
EB 0xeb8b…8e96 sports 242 markets active 1h ago coverage 98d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$256 (+4%) realized +$536 · open −$280
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate56%132W / 103L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$162now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$217
7 days+$199
14 days+$199
30 days+$192
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% −$164
weather 20% −$53
other 16% +$98
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -23.4% -30.7% 52% 39% -2.6%
≤30d 43 -5.8% -14.8% 53% 47% -3.1%
≤90d 233 -0.9% -10.4% 57% 52% -6.9%
all 235 -1.8% -11.1% 56% 51% -7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 51% -7.0%
10% -19.6% 43% -15.9%
15% -27.4% 35% -24.1%
20% -34.5% 27% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$9 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$162
Realized+$536
Unrealized−$280
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses132 / 103
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions7
Markets (closed)235 / 242
History coverage98d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 235 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs T1 Academy 77¢ 59¢ $150 $115 −$35 (-23%)
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 41¢ 44¢ $12 $13 +$1 (+9%)
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+1%)
Will England reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 56¢ 55¢ $12 $11 −$0 (-3%)
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 60¢ 56¢ $12 $11 −$1 (-7%)
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Nongshim Esports Academy 69¢ 0¢ $227 $0 −$226 (-100%)
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner T1 Academy 64¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 52 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $105 −$87 -83%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $71 +$34 +48%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $171 +$95 +56%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $11 −$10 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $11 +$4 +38%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $17 −$16 -94%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $315 +$53 +17%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $71 −$61 -86%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $314 +$71 +23%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $315 +$46 +15%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $229 +$86 +38%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $29 −$28 -99%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $243 +$15 +6%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $222 +$21 +10%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $213 +$8 +4%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $184 +$29 +16%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $18 −$17 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $8 +$5 +70%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $8 $0 -6%
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 13 $15 −$1 -8%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $14 −$14 -99%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $14 −$14 -99%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 02 $14 −$14 -99%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 02 $12 +$3 +24%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 02 $4 −$3 -68%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 02 $3 −$3 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C or below on June 2? Jun 02 $13 +$3 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 2? Jun 02 $6 −$4 -79%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 2? Jun 02 $6 −$3 -60%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $2 +$1 +62%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 02 $5 +$2 +50%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $2 +$1 +50%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 01 $11 −$2 -14%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 01 $1 +$2 +179%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner Jun 01 $6 +$5 +83%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner Jun 01 $1 −$1 -76%
Game Handicap: AL (-2.5) vs Team WE (+2.5) Jun 01 $4 +$2 +62%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner Jun 01 $1 +$3 +291%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 1? Jun 01 $1 +$1 +100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 1? Jun 01 $3 +$2 +57%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 1? Jun 01 $2 −$2 -92%
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Weibo Gaming (+1.5) May 21 $1 −$1 -99%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 16 $4 −$4 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on May 16? May 16 $3 +$1 +59%
LoL: Gen.G vs T1 - Game 2 Winner May 16 $3 −$2 -93%
LoL: Gen.G vs T1 - Game 1 Winner May 16 $2 +$1 +59%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on May 16? May 16 $1 +$1 +59%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on May 16? May 16 $1 −$1 -63%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 16? May 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 64¢ $18 37m
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 Academy 12¢ $18 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 67¢ $105 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 Academy 100¢ $105 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 67¢ $71 2h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 69¢ $229 2h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 77¢ $151 3h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 100¢ $259 3h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 63¢ $11 5h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 100¢ $15 5h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 72¢ $11 6h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 61¢ $160 6h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast SELL KT Rolster Challengers 39¢ $7 6h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 3¢ $1 6h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 58¢ $11 6h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 51¢ $17 6h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $368 6h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Austria 9¢ $10 7h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 85¢ $315 8h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 60¢ $71 8h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $314 16h
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 41¢ $12 28h
Will England reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 56¢ $12 28h
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 60¢ $12 28h
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 62¢ $12 28h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner BUY Galions 87¢ $315 44h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Top Esports Challenger 72¢ $229 2d
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner BUY Saigon Warriors 56¢ $10 2d
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner BUY Saigon Warriors 57¢ $19 2d
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 100¢ $258 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $162.02 · official $172.73 · 503 history records